Real Estate Loans: Up to 20% of Applications at Risk Due to Usury Rate

A Massive Blockage Starting May-June 2026

Based on over 6,000 files signed in the first quarter of 2026, CAFPI models the impact of a rate increase on the APR according to two scenarios. In the current scenario, with a 20 basis point increase compared to Q1 2026, 14% of files are already blocked by the usury rate. In the scenario projected for May-June, with a 40 basis point increase, up to 20% of files could be rejected. The usury rate, set at 4.48% for loans of 10 to 20 years and 5.19% for those over 20 years since April 1st, is widening its gap with the actual rates applied. « The usury rate is currently out of sync with the actual rates applied. Without prompt adjustments, it becomes a major blocking factor, » explains Laura Martino, Director of Banking Partnerships at CAFPI.

Three Particularly Exposed Profiles

Borrowers repaying over less than 20 years are paradoxically the most affected: 59% of their cases are stalled in the current scenario, with projections up to 70% by May-June. For smaller amounts, under €100,000, 36% of cases are already blocked, a figure that could reach 47% in the short term. Borrowers over the age of 45 are also significantly impacted, with 27% of cases currently blocked, a number that could rise to 46% in the coming weeks due to the increasing cost of borrower insurance. CAFPI reminds us that in response to the 2022-2023 crisis, the authorities implemented a monthly revision of the usury rate, which helped to streamline the market. The broker advocates for a return to this monthly update to « quickly restore a smooth functioning of the market."