Real Estate: Recovery Continues Despite Persistent Cracks
The Notaires de France present a more positive 2025 report than expected: transactions are picking up, prices are stabilizing, and real estate purchasing power is improving. However, the recovery remains uneven, with entire segments of the market continuing to decline.
A Confirmed and Sustained Recovery
Between September 2024 and September 2025, transactions for existing homes reached 921,000 units, an increase of nearly 11%. This level, comparable to that observed in 2017, indicates a recovery that began in late 2024 and strengthened throughout 2025. Despite an uncertain political and geopolitical climate, households have regained a sense of confidence, buoyed by an easing of financing conditions and stabilization of rate expectations.
Prices reflect this dynamic: a 1.3% increase for existing apartments and a 0.2% rise for houses. Projections for the fourth quarter of 2025 and early 2026 anticipate an annual growth of around 2% for apartments and « about 1% » for houses, with slightly stronger growth in the Île-de-France region for the latter. In the new housing market, the recovery remains moderate: apartment sales have increased by 2% over twelve months but remain 35% below the levels seen two years earlier. Thus, the gap between existing and new housing persists.
Warning signs remain, particularly in real estate
The segment of building plots remains one of the main points of vulnerability. The exclusion of single-family homes from the PTZ (interest-free loan) triggered a sharp drop in transactions: from 70,000 in the third quarter of 2023 to 45,000 a year later, a decrease of 36%. Since early 2025, the decline continues, but at a slower pace. This drying up of buildable land could have a lasting impact on new construction and increase tensions in certain local markets.
On the other hand, the energy transition provides a positive signal: for the first time, the share of highly energy-consuming properties is decreasing. After increasing between 2021 and 2023, it fell in 2024 and stabilized at 15% of sales in 2025. Highly energy-consuming houses represent 10% of transactions in the second quarter of 2025, compared to 19% in 2023. Apartments classified as C have significantly increased, rising from 20% of sales in 2021 to 28% in the second quarter of 2025. This improvement could influence the valuation of energy-efficient properties, as real estate purchasing power rises by 4% year-on-year, reaching its 2022 level.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
