ADP lowers its traffic assumption for Paris and targets the lower end of its EBITDA range
The revision was published on October 15, 2026 with September figures. Over the first nine months, the group's traffic is almost stable (+0.1%) and that of Paris platforms declined by 0.4%. The operator maintains its other assumptions and forecasts for the fiscal year.
A slight decline in Paris traffic now expected in 2026
ADP Group revised its passenger traffic assumption for Paris in 2026. The group now anticipates a slight decline compared to 2025, whereas it had previously assumed annual growth of approximately 0.5%. This assumption was included in the press release of July 29, 2026.
The group attributes this revision to three factors observed in September: rising fuel prices, capacity adjustments made by airlines, and a less favorable demand environment. It also relies on traffic recorded since the beginning of the year. In September alone, Paris Airport welcomed 9.1 million passengers, representing a decline of 1.6%. The entire group totaled 34.0 million passengers, down 0.2%.
This change in assumption has an impact on the financial metric monitored by the market. ADP now anticipates recurring 2026 EBITDA in the lower end of the range of 2,300 to 2,350 million euros, communicated during the publication of first-half 2026 results. During the presentation of 2025 annual results on February 18, 2026, the EBITDA guidance was 2,325 million euros.
These outlooks do not include potential effects on 2026 results from measures in the 2027 budget bill. In Paris, the two major platforms are moving in opposite directions. Paris-Charles de Gaulle advanced 1.5% in September to 6,223,860 passengers, but declined 0.2% over nine months. Paris-Orly declined 7.9% over the month to 2,857,532 passengers, and 0.9% over nine months.
TAV in growth, GMR and the Middle East in decline
The group's platforms display divergent trends internationally. TAV Airports welcomed 12.6 million passengers in September, up 3.3%, and progressed 2.6% over nine months. GMR Airports declined 3.3% over the month to 9.2 million passengers, and 0.4% since January. Hyderabad weighs on this decline, with a drop of 12.7% in September and 10.3% over nine months, while New Delhi progressed respectively by 2.7% and 4.2%.
Other airports (Amman, Santiago de Chile, Antananarivo and Nosy Be) were stable in September, but down 4.2% over nine months. In Paris, traffic with Europe declined 2.3% in September and remained stable over nine months. The Middle East declined 6.5% over the month and 12.9% since January. North America advanced 1.7% in September after a decline of 1.5% over nine months. Metropolitan France advanced 2.2% over the month and 2.5% over the period.
Paris operating indicators showed little change. The connection rate was 21.2% in September, down 0.9 percentage points, and 20.2% over nine months, up 0.1 percentage points. The aircraft load factor reached 82.9% over the month (-0.2 percentage points) and 84.1% over nine months (-0.7 percentage points).
Aircraft movements in Paris declined 2.0% in September to 59,700, with a 7.8% decline at Orly. Compared to 2019, Paris traffic represented 96.2% of its level in September and 97.8% over nine months.
Revenue for the first nine months expected on October 22
The next stage of financial communication will take place on October 22, 2026: the group will publish its revenue for the first nine months after market close. October traffic figures will follow on November 16, 2026, also after market close.
This revision comes as the stock has moved erratically in recent weeks. On October 8, 2026, ADP shares had fallen back below 104.30 euros, following the reduction of Intesa Sanpaolo's price target. In 2025, the group's network of 26 airports had welcomed nearly 379 million passengers, for revenue of 6,704 million euros and a net profit attributable to the group of 382 million euros.
