ADP Shares Bounce to €107 Before AGM, Analyst Targets €138
The Paris-region airport operator rose by 2.2% to €107 in mid-afternoon trading, 24 hours before its annual general meeting. The stock benefits from a positive session in Paris, with the SBF 120 up 0.52%. Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, the rebound follows a quarterly decline of 11.13%.
BNP Paribas Exane Raises Target on ADP to €138 with Outperform Rating Maintained
On May 20, BNP Paribas Exane raised its price target on Aéroports de Paris from €135 to €138, while reaffirming its outperform rating. At the current price of €107, the new target offers a theoretical potential of around 29%. This revision follows other recent adjustments: Morgan Stanley lowered its target at the beginning of May while maintaining a positive view, and Jefferies also revised its target at the end of April following quarterly results. When announcing the annual results for 2025 (on March 13, 2026), the company targeted for 2026 an adjusted EBITDA of over €2,350 million, traffic growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, and a dividend policy set at 60% of the net result attributable to the group, with a minimum of €3.00 per share.
Stock Reaches 50-Day Moving Average Following a Decline in April Traffic
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At €107, the price moves above the MM20 (€106.36) and is in contact with the MM50 at €107.25 (a gap of -0.23%). The MM200 at €114.16 remains out of reach, 6.27% above the current price. The RSI at 44 indicates a neutral configuration, without directional excess. Today's rebound mitigates the 11.13% decline accumulated over three months, but does not erase it. It follows the announcement of a 4.9% decline in April traffic for the group, attributed by the operator to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The sector context remains tense, with Brent crude around $110 per barrel, likely to impact air transport costs.
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Context
Period
Period: 9M 2026
Key reported figures
Revenue: 5 106 millions d'euros
Quarterly revenue: 5 106 millions d'euros
Revenue growth: 1,4 %
Guidance from the release
Whilst taking these measures into account, Groupe ADP is monitoring the latest traffic forecasts and the prolonged nature of the tensions in the Middle East
Risks mentioned
Disruptions to the operating environment related to the conflict in the Middle East, particularly affecting international traffic flows
Traffic continues to be adversely affected by reduction in IndiGo's flight schedules and airlines facing rising fuel prices
Works taking place at Paris-Orly airport leading to reduction in flight schedules and limited transfers to Paris-Charles de Gaulle
Opportunities identified
Extension of Tbilisi airport concession period to 31 December 2031 with USD150 million investment planned
GMR Airports commences operations at Nagpur and Bhogapuram airports with significant capacity for future growth
Opening of two new P/S private terminals in Dallas-Fort Worth and Miami to expand private aviation services
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: 2 300 millions d'euros
Management commentary: « compte tenu d'un environnement opérationnel toujours difficile, le Groupe anticipe un EBITDA courant pour 2026 dans le bas de la fourchette de 2 300 à 2 350 millions d'euros »
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
