ADP Shares Bounce to €107 Before AGM, Analyst Targets €138
The Paris-region airport operator rose by 2.2% to €107 in mid-afternoon trading, 24 hours before its annual general meeting. The stock benefits from a positive session in Paris, with the SBF 120 up 0.52%. Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, the rebound follows a quarterly decline of 11.13%.
BNP Paribas Exane Raises Target on ADP to €138 with Outperform Rating Maintained
On May 20, BNP Paribas Exane raised its price target on Aéroports de Paris from €135 to €138, while reaffirming its outperform rating. At the current price of €107, the new target offers a theoretical potential of around 29%. This revision follows other recent adjustments: Morgan Stanley lowered its target at the beginning of May while maintaining a positive view, and Jefferies also revised its target at the end of April following quarterly results. When announcing the annual results for 2025 (on March 13, 2026), the company targeted for 2026 an adjusted EBITDA of over €2,350 million, traffic growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, and a dividend policy set at 60% of the net result attributable to the group, with a minimum of €3.00 per share.
Stock Reaches 50-Day Moving Average Following a Decline in April Traffic
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At €107, the price moves above the MM20 (€106.36) and is in contact with the MM50 at €107.25 (a gap of -0.23%). The MM200 at €114.16 remains out of reach, 6.27% above the current price. The RSI at 44 indicates a neutral configuration, without directional excess. Today's rebound mitigates the 11.13% decline accumulated over three months, but does not erase it. It follows the announcement of a 4.9% decline in April traffic for the group, attributed by the operator to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The sector context remains tense, with Brent crude around $110 per barrel, likely to impact air transport costs.
SectorInfrastructures · Transports›Services de Transport
Context
Period
Period: 2025
Key reported figures
Revenue: 6 704 millions d'euros
Revenue growth: 8,9 %
EBITDA: 2 322 millions d'euros
EBITDA margin: 34,6 %
Net income: 382 millions d'euros
8 625 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,00 €
Payout ratio: 60,0 %
Guidance from the release
L’année 2025 a été marquée par l’impulsion d’une nouvelle dynamique au sein du Groupe ADP et l’amorce d’une transformation structurelle de notre modèle.
Résultats annuels 2025 : chiffre d’affaires de 6 704 millions d’euros, EBITDA courant de 2 322 millions d’euros, RNPG de 382 millions d’euros; dette nette de 8 625 millions d’euros et dividende proposé de 3,00 euros par action. Le groupe atteint ses objectifs 2025 et prévoit une distribution de dividendes conforme à 60% du RNPG.
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: supérieur à 2 350 millions d'euros
Management commentary: Pour 2026, l’EBITDA courant est attendu au-delà de 2 350 millions d’euros; le ratio Dette Nette / EBITDA courant visé est inférieur ou égal à 3,7x; capex autour de 1 450 millions d’euros, dont environ 1 000 millions pour ADP SA; politique de distribution de dividendes à 60% du résultat net part du groupe avec un plancher de 3,00 euros par action; trafic attendu en croissance autour de 1,5% à 2,5% et CA par Pax Extime Paris supérieur à 32 euros.
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