Airbus estimates need for 2,670 cargo aircraft by 2045, two-thirds to be converted
Airbus has estimated that the market will need 2,670 cargo aircraft by 2045, with nearly two-thirds coming from conversions of passenger aircraft. The manufacturer presented these sectoral projections on October 21, 2026 as part of the Cargo Facts Symposium.
2,670 cargo aircraft required, primarily to replace existing fleet
According to Airbus's 2026 edition of the "Cargo Global Market Forecast", the global fleet of dedicated freight aircraft would increase from 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 in 2045. This is a forecast for the entire sector, not solely for the manufacturer's deliveries.
Of the 2,670 cargo aircraft required, 1,580 would primarily serve to replace older models and 1,090 to support traffic growth. By category, Airbus identified 1,140 narrowbody aircraft, 860 intermediate wide-body aircraft and 670 large-capacity wide-body aircraft.
The manufacturer valued new aircraft at 970 units, against 1,700 converted aircraft derived from passenger versions. Airbus cited among the models concerned the A350F under new construction, as well as conversions on the A320, A321 and A330 families, presented as enabling fuel consumption and carbon emissions reductions.
Traffic expected to rise by 3.2% annually, driven by Asia-Pacific
Airbus based its projection on an average annual growth of 2.9% in long-term global trade and 3.2% per year in air freight traffic over the next two decades. According to the manufacturer, air freight represents less than 1% of global trade volume by weight, but more than 30% of its value.
Airbus indicated that the share of computers and high-technology products in air freight has doubled in value over the past three years, reaching 15% in 2026. E-commerce and the use of aircraft as an alternative to maritime transport for certain goods are among other drivers cited, despite high fuel prices, geopolitical disruptions and supply chain constraints.
Links between Asia-Pacific and North America would remain the most significant with 3.8% annual growth, ahead of those connecting Asia-Pacific to Europe. On the demand side, North America (925) and Asia-Pacific (850) would together represent two-thirds of the total, ahead of Europe and CIS (515), Latin America (165), the Middle East (125) and Africa (90).
