BNP Paribas Stock Falls 1.5% and Slides Below Its Moving Averages
BNP Paribas is under pressure on Tuesday, falling back below its two main moving averages in a Paris market already trending downward. The session takes place against a tense backdrop for financial stocks, with an ECB meeting expected Thursday and a rate hike already largely priced in by monetary markets.
BNP Paribas Below Its Moving Averages, Near a Key Support Level at €100.66
BNP Paribas is down 1.53% to €102.94 in trading, ranking among the biggest declines on the CAC 40, which itself is down 0.39%. The stock is now trading below its 20-day MA at €106.98 (difference of -3.78%) and its 50-day MA at €105.80 (difference of -2.70%), two thresholds from which it had slipped since the correction phase that began in late August. The 200-day MA, much lower at €92.41, offers a still comfortable long-term floor, with a positive difference of over 11%.
The RSI at 46 remains in neutral territory, with no marked signal of selling exhaustion, while the price is approaching support at €100.66, which is less than 2.2% away from current levels. Over one month, the decline reaches 8.45%, although the three-month performance remains solidly positive at nearly 10%, highlighting the amplitude of the rebound recorded since summer.
Deutsche Bank Raises Its Price Target to €109; ECB and Rates in the Background for the Sector
Deutsche Bank revised its outlook on BNP Paribas on Tuesday, raising its price target from €106 to €109, while maintaining a "hold" opinion. At the current price of €102.94, this target represents an upside potential of approximately 6%. This adjustment comes as the banking sector faces an evolving rate environment: monetary markets are fully anticipating a 25 basis point ECB rate hike Thursday, which would bring the deposit rate to 2.5%. Historically, BNP Paribas shows negative sensitivity to consumer credit rates in the eurozone, a parameter to monitor if the Brent oil recovery (around $97 per barrel) were to sustain inflation and prolong the monetary tightening cycle.
The 3-month Euribor stood at 2.513% in early August, up 0.48 points over one year, in an environment where outstanding loans to French businesses are growing 3.5% year-over-year. According to the consensus of analysts tracked, the stock is trading at approximately 8.9 times expected earnings for the current fiscal year. The ECB's decision on Thursday will constitute the next concrete inflection point for the entire European financial sector.
