Carrefour lowers its 2026 targets, penalized by the social situation in France
The revision, linked according to the group to the deterioration of the social and security situation in France, affects both operating margin, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow. It comes as the year-end approaches, a decisive period for retail.
Margin, EPS and free cash flow: three 2026 targets revised downward
Carrefour now anticipates for 2026 a current operating result (COR) in growth, with an operating margin increasing by 0 to 15 basis points. It previously targeted an increase of 25 basis points. Adjusted net earnings per share are expected to be stable or slightly up compared to 2025, against previously expected growth in the upper end of a single-digit range.
Net free cash flow should record a slight decline, while the group was banking on slight growth. In the same move, the retailer is reducing its investments in France by year-end and targets annual capex of 1.6 billion euros, versus 1.7 billion euros previously.
The group describes an impact on two fronts. On the demand side, it reports a decline in customer traffic and consumer confidence already weakened by rising energy prices. On the operating side, it cites reduced opening hours related to curfews and increased security and logistics costs in many stores located in urban areas.
"Uncertainty about consumption dynamics and the operating conditions of our points of sale is high," declared Alexandre Bompard, Chief Executive Officer, clarifying that the strategic roadmap "remains unchanged". The cost savings plan remains in line with the target of 1 billion euros in 2026; at the publication of the half-year results on July 23, 2026, the group reported 490 million euros in savings achieved in the first half.
Before this announcement, the consensus of analysts surveyed on October 19, 2026 was banking on earnings per share of €1.73 for the current fiscal year, with the share then trading at approximately 8.1 times these expected earnings. On the eve of publication, the stock had lost nearly 2% in trading, following violence that occurred in several cities.
France, Spain, Brazil: the three core countries with comparable growth
Third-quarter turnover including tax reached €22,694 million before application of IAS 29 (hyperinflation in Argentina), up 2.3% on a like-for-like basis, after +2.1% in the first half. Growth stood at 2.7% at constant exchange rates and 3.9% at current exchange rates. The fuel effect contributed +1.3%, the exchange rate effect +1.2% (mainly the Brazilian real), while the scope effect weighed -0.7%, notably due to the sale of six hypermarkets in France.
Grocery advanced 2.7% on a comparable basis and non-grocery declined 1.1%. In France (€11,900 million), sales increased 1.2%, with growth across all formats, following a new wave of price cuts launched in August on more than 500 products (average reduction of 8%). Former Cora stores showed +7.3%, after +5.0% in the second quarter and +2.3% in the first, and Match stores +3.4%.
Spain (€3,107 million) advanced 2.1%, driven notably by proximity (+13%). In Brazil (€5,144 million), comparable growth reached 1.4%: Atacadão gained 2.0%, after +0.5% in the second quarter and -1.0% in the first, while Carrefour Retail declined 2.3% following the halt of non-food e-commerce. The Other countries segment advanced 8.4%, between Argentina (+24.2%), Belgium (+2.3%) and Poland (-4.3%).
Over nine months, turnover stood at €66,483 million before IAS 29, up 2.1% on a comparable basis. At group level, e-commerce advanced 18% over the quarter.
Credit line extended and agreement in sight for Codifrance buyback
The group placed a €500 million bond issue in September. On October 19, 2026, it exercised the second extension of its €4 billion syndicated credit line, with maturity moving from November 2030 to November 2031 with the support of all banks in the syndicate.
Carrefour also signed an agreement to acquire Codifrance, a specialist in affiliation and proximity food distribution, an operation announced on October 19, 2026 on the basis of a valuation of €152 million. In early October, the retailer completed a sale-leaseback covering 35 stores in France and Spain, for a net seller value of approximately €290 million according to the announcement of October 8, 2026.
The board of directors also reallocated 871,877 treasury shares to the 2024 LTI plan, with the capital remaining composed of 736,314,789 shares. Next milestone: the presentation of the hypermarket strategy in France on November 17, 2026.
