Dassault Aviation Shares Bounce to €282.80 After a Quarterly Decline of 19.2%
The Saint-Cloud aircraft manufacturer regains momentum this Tuesday mid-morning. The stock is up 2.76% at €282.80, in a SBF 120 that has risen by 0.81%. This movement comes after a 19.2% decline over three months, bringing the price to levels not seen in several months.
A Technical Rebound in a Stock Back in the Oversold Zone After Three Challenging Months
Dassault Aviation's stock rebounds by 2.76% to €282.80 during the session. The stock is part of the upward trend of the SBF 120 (+0.81%) but is not leading the index. Alongside it, other defense stocks are also advancing: Thales is up 3.82% and Safran 1.64%. The rebound occurs in a technically strained stock. The RSI has dropped to 30, on the edge of the oversold zone, and the price is at the lower end of the Bollinger Bands (25%), near the lower limit at €270.78. The support threshold at €275.20, defended at the start of the session, supported the upward movement. However, the price remains below its three moving averages: MM20 at €295.07 (a gap of 4.16%), MM50 at €317.24, and MM200 at €296.76. The overall configuration remains bearish, with today's rebound mitigating part of the 19.2% quarterly decline without offsetting it.
A Busy Industrial Calendar Following the Announcement of Partnership with OHB on Vortex-S
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In recent news, the Saint-Cloud aircraft manufacturer announced on May 12 its partnership with OHB to propose the Vortex-S space plane to the European Space Agency. This project of a reusable craft, aimed at missions to orbital stations, expands the group's scope beyond its traditional military and business aviation activities. The geopolitical environment also remains a backdrop for the aerospace and defense sector, with ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Brent crude maintaining above $110 per barrel. On the calendar front, the group's next financial appointments are scheduled for July 22, 2026, for the first semester results, followed by October 28 for the third quarter activity update. The stock's return to its MM20 at €295.07 would be the next technical step to confirm stabilization beyond today's rebound.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
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