Dassault Aviation Shares Drop 2.5% Following Defense Sector Trends
The Saint-Cloud aircraft manufacturer falls as the market closes, in a Parisian market heavily oriented downwards amid new tensions in the Middle East. The decline is part of a broader movement in French defense stocks as volatility sharply increases in European markets. The stock is testing its technical benchmarks after a bullish week.
A Decline Bringing Dassault Aviation Back to Its 20-Day Moving Average
Dassault Aviation shares lose 2.37% to €296.60 during the session, after closing at €303.80 the previous day. The decline is part of a difficult session for the entire sector, with Thales down 1.94% and Safran dropping over 4%, while the CAC 40 loses nearly 2% and the SBF 120 drops 2.01%. The American volatility index (VIX) climbs 11.16% to 17.93, a movement consistent with the new military escalation between Washington and Tehran and the Iranian claims of strikes against American facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.
From a chartist perspective, the stock returns to contact its MM20 (€297.68), touching it within 0.36%, while remaining slightly above its MM50 (€294.24) and below its MM200 (€300.52, a gap of -1.30%). The RSI at 57 remains neutral, with no sign of excess. The next bearish benchmark remains the support at €283.60, while the resistance at €311.20 marks the upper limit of the recent channel.
The Week's Rally Fades After Attacking the €309 Resistance
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Despite today's downturn, the weekly performance remains positive at +3.27%, driven by last week's bullish sequence when the stock had attacked its resistance at €309 by gaining nearly 5%. Over three months, the balance remains negative at -10.01%, and the stock shows an almost null performance over a year (-0.13%). The geopolitical context remains the main factor of the session: the United States has conducted strikes against Iran and Donald Trump has declared from Ankara that the ceasefire with Tehran is over, according to him, reducing short-term diplomatic visibility.
This escalation weighs on airlines and civil aeronautics, while pure defense stocks are mixed after their rally in recent weeks. The holding of the MM20 at €297.68 and the support at €283.60 are the next concrete technical benchmarks to follow the stock's dynamics.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
