Edenred shares significantly decline at mid-session in a likewise downward trending Paris market. The stock plunges below its short and medium-term technical benchmarks, while short positions remain substantial.
Edenred Falls Below Its Three Moving Averages, with a Weekly Decline of Nearly 14%
Edenred shares fall by 3.09% to €19.94, down from €20.57 the previous day. The stock is among the lowest performers in the SBF 120, which is down by 0.75% during the session. The decline brings the weekly drop to nearly 14%, following a slide that was already penalized in the previous session, as evidenced by the crossing below the 20-day moving average (MM20) documented at the close of June 5. The price is now below the MM20 (€22.27, a gap of -10.48%) and the MM50 (€20.72). It has also just dropped below the MM200 at €20.06, with a marginal gap of -0.62%, erasing the breakthrough observed at the end of April. The RSI at 53 remains neutral and does not yet indicate seller exhaustion.
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According to reviewed statements, eight funds accumulate a net short position of 8.41% of the capital, down 1.22 points over thirty days (9.63% a month ago). The level remains high in absolute terms and reflects the persistence of a marked bearish bet by institutional investors on the stock, even though the pressure is gradually easing. Regarding valuation, the stock is trading at approximately 9.5 times the expected earnings for the current fiscal year according to the consensus of surveyed analysts, with a projected EPS growth of 13.6% between this fiscal year and the next. The session context remains heavy: the CAC 40 is down 0.73%, the DAX falls by 2%, and Brent crude rises above $92 amid tensions in the Middle East. The technical support identified at €21.03 has already been breached; the next threshold to watch is the €20 zone that the stock has just crossed downwards.
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Context
Period
Period: 3T 2025
Guidance from the release
Edenred confirme la solidité de son modèle économique et réaffirme ses objectifs 2025, visant au moins 10 % de croissance organique de l’EBITDA et un taux de conversion Free-cash-flow/EBITDA supérieur à 70 %.
Croissance organique accélérée au T3 2025 (+8,2 % chiffre d’affaires opérationnel) portée par toutes les lignes de métier, forte dynamique en Amérique latine et amélioration en Europe; Mobilité en croissance à deux chiffres; Solutions complémentaires en repli. Effets de change négatifs et impact réglementaire en Italie (plafonnement commissions) anticipés.
Risks mentioned
Impact négatif attendu de 60 millions d’euros d’EBITDA lié au plafonnement des commissions marchands en Italie
Effets de change défavorables (dépréciation des devises en Amérique latine, notamment réal brésilien et peso mexicain)
Environnement macroéconomique incertain pouvant affecter la consommation et la demande
Opportunities identified
Hausses des valeurs faciales des titres-restaurant dans plusieurs pays (ex. Belgique +25% à partir du 1er janvier 2026) soutenant la croissance organique
Partenariats stratégiques (Visa, Esso, grand distributeur de carburant) renforçant l’offre et l’accès au marché
Déploiement des solutions Beyond Food et Beyond Fuel et conquête du segment PME encore sous-pénétré
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.