EDP raises its 2026 forecasts for the third time, net profit up 25%
EDP raised its forecasts for the 2026 financial year for the third time this year, during its results conference on 6 November 2026. Over the first nine months, reported net profit rose 25%, to €1.19 billion.
According to management, the profit forecast has been raised by 16% compared with the assumption used when the strategic plan was presented. It attributes this improvement to the group's three main activities, and not only to exceptional items.
Growth remains uneven across divisions. Recurring EBITDA of EDP Renewables rose 23% and that of electricity networks rose 10%, while that of flexible generation and supply grew 2%, held back by higher costs of grid balancing services.
Renewables and networks drive the increase in recurring EBITDA
EDP Renewables generated recurring EBITDA of €1.73 billion over nine months. The increase stems notably from US capacities and gains on asset disposals that were €275 million higher than in 2025, a component that depends on transactions completed during the period.
Electricity networks reached €1.3 billion in recurring EBITDA, thanks to improved regulated returns in Portugal and Spain. They now represent approximately 31% of EBITDA and 40% of the group's net profit.
Management specified that the Spanish networks do not benefit from a significant exceptional retroactive regulatory catch-up, and therefore present their growth as essentially structural. It recalled the future disappearance of €40 million in historical revenues, already factored into the plan.
The group plans €4.1 billion of investments in Iberian networks between 2026 and 2030, i.e. 60% more than over the 2021-2025 period. Recurring operating costs of the core business, meanwhile, remained stable.
Iberian supply weighs, hydroelectric pumping partly offsets
The flexible generation and supply division posted recurring EBITDA of €1.14 billion. Growth in Brazil and hydroelectric pumping partially offset the difficulties in Iberian supply.
The higher cost of balancing services had a negative impact of approximately €200 million over the first nine months. Management expects this effect to gradually decline in 2027 and 2028, thanks to the adjustment of commercial prices, without a complete disappearance from 2027.
Pumping benefits from the rise of solar power, which widens the gap between prices during sunny hours and those in other periods. This average spread rose from €18/MWh in 2024 to €42/MWh over nine months in 2026, and reaches €81/MWh for 2027 according to forward prices.
EDP owns 5.5 GW of hydroelectric capacity in the Iberian Peninsula, of which more than 45% have pumping capacity, and anticipates around 3 TWh of annual pumped volumes in the future. These revenues are not covered by baseload price hedging, which covers 85% of the 2027 reference production, at approximately €64/MWh.
2026 forecasts based on a dry November, net debt of €16.8 billion
The scenario adopted for the end of the financial year assumes a dry November and normal hydrological conditions in December. According to the chief executive, more favourable rainfall could allow the group to reach the top of the range, or even exceed it.
Weather also weighs over the longer term: according to the chief financial officer, a 10% variation in Iberian hydroelectric output could change 2028 net profit by approximately €40 million.
On the balance sheet side, net debt stood at €16.8 billion at the end of September, against a target of around €16 billion at year-end. The group has €10.5 billion in financial liquidity and states that it covers virtually all its refinancing needs through 2029.
The rise in profits, spread across networks, renewables and hydro, is thus accompanied by debt that the group has set itself the goal of reducing by the end of the year. Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade also confirmed that he will leave the chief executive position at the 2027 general meeting, at the end of his term.
