March 12, 2026, proved to be a particularly harsh day for RUBIS: the stock closed at 32.94 euros, down 7.63% from the previous day, coinciding with the publication of its 2025 annual results. This convergence of negative signals—technical, statistical, and fundamental—gives the session an unusual character for the stock. The CAC 40, on the other hand, ended the session on March 12 down 0.71% at 7,984.44 points, providing a moderately unfavorable market context, far from explaining the magnitude of the movement on Rubis.
The release of the 2025 annual accounts was the central event of the day. Rubis reported a net income increase of 19% to 309 million euros, despite a slight 2% decrease in revenue. The financial structure has strengthened, with a debt ratio reduced to 0.9 times EBITDA. The 2026 EBITDA guidance, ranging from 740 to 790 million euros, remains conservative. Yet, the market's reaction was unequivocal: a daily change of -7.63% significantly exceeds the 5% alert threshold, characterizing an abnormal variation. The 5.29% decline over the last seven sessions marks this movement as part of an already ongoing deterioration. The 2026 guidance, seemingly considered cautious in light of expectations, appears to have weighed more heavily than the quality of the figures presented. The geopolitical oil context—with Brent crude surpassing $100 on March 12 amid armed conflict in the Middle East—may also introduce additional uncertainty regarding the group's supplies and margins.
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Graphically, the day marked a downward crossing of the 50-day moving average, which stood at 34.23 euros. Rubis had been above this level for several weeks—the 50-day MA was at 34.16 euros the day before, with a price at 35.66 euros—making the day's break a clear rupture, not a gradual touch. The price at 32.94 euros now sits 3.8% below this technical reference. Simultaneously, the stock touched its lowest level in a month, below the previous monthly low of 33.36 euros. The identified support at 34.06 euros also gave way. The 200-day moving average, established at 31.10 euros, constitutes the next significant technical marker on the downside. The RSI at 51 does not yet indicate an extreme oversold zone. All these elements—published results, technical break, new monthly low, and abnormal variation—paint a coherent picture on this day where each signal reinforces the others.
Au niveau mondial, le Groupe anticipe que le maintien de prix du pétrole élevés pèsera sur la demande au second semestre
La demande au Nigéria devrait être plus modérée au second semestre
En Europe, la montée en puissance des activités bitume devrait continuer de soutenir une forte croissance des volumes, quoique à des marges plus faibles
Opportunities identified
Photosol a franchi une étape clé avec la mise en service complète du parc solaire de Creil
Les développements dans la production d'électricité renouvelable devraient s'accélérer au second semestre
En Afrique, la performance devrait continuer de bénéficier de l'amélioration des conditions de marché et de la croissance des volumes de bitume
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: 800 millions d'euros
Management commentary: l'EBITDA du Groupe est désormais attendu entre 775 M€ et 825 M€ en 2026, à taux de change EUR/USD constant (1,13) et en supposant un impact IAS 29 - hyperinflation inchangé par rapport à 2025.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
