Solvay lowers its 2026 EBITDA target, penalized by the shutdown of its Saudi plant
Solvay revised, on October 19, 2026, its outlook for the full year. This third quarter was affected by the Middle East conflict and by the extended shutdown of the peroxides plant at the Sadara complex in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. The new underlying EBITDA range, between 720 and 740 million euros, is calculated excluding potential revenues or compensatory measures from Sadara for the remainder of the year.
This is the central point of the publication: the impact of the shutdown is integrated into the quarter's figures and the annual target. The recovery mechanisms provided for by the joint venture's contractual framework are not included. The quarterly figures reported remain preliminary, subject to completion of the closing process, before the publication of full results on November 4.
173 million euros of EBITDA in the third quarter, after an impact of approximately 25 million euros linked to the Middle East
In the third quarter of 2026, the chemicals company recorded underlying net revenue of 1.03 billion euros and underlying EBITDA of 173 million euros. Free cash flow to shareholders from continuing operations stood at 54 million euros. According to the group, the Middle East conflict had a negative impact of approximately 25 million euros on underlying EBITDA for the quarter, following approximately 20 million euros already recorded in the second quarter.
This impact is primarily due to the extended shutdown of the Jubail Peroxides plant, which accounts for nearly 15 million euros in the third quarter alone. Revenue came in below the average of expectations compiled on October 13, 2026, which stood at 1.09 billion euros, based on a single analyst estimate.
Saudi exposure through a joint venture equipped with recovery mechanisms
Solvay's activities in Jubail are conducted through a joint venture with Sadara, itself majority-held by Saudi Aramco. The group indicates it is examining all available options to mitigate the financial impact of the shutdown. The joint venture's contractual framework indeed includes mechanisms designed to recover lost profitability.
Beyond this site, Solvay describes a quarter during which it "continued to operate in a challenging market environment." The comparison between the impact attributed to the Sadara plant (nearly 15 million euros) and the total impact of the conflict (approximately 25 million euros) shows that the shutdown of the Saudi site, presented as the main cause, does not alone explain the Middle East effect on the quarter's EBITDA.
On the market, the stock had risen nearly 4% over one week as of October 9, 2026, after a decline of approximately 4% over one month recorded on October 2.
2026 EBITDA expected between 720 and 740 million euros, excluding Sadara compensation
For the full year 2026, Solvay now targets underlying EBITDA between 720 and 740 million euros. Free cash flow to shareholders from continuing operations is expected between 120 and 150 million euros, after approximately 90 million euros in transformation expenses. In its outlook for 2026 presented when publishing 2025 full-year results, Solvay had anticipated underlying EBITDA between 770 and 850 million euros.
The group clarifies its commitment to its transformation and continued focus on cash generation and achievement of its cost savings targets. Due to the ongoing quiet period, it will make no further comments before the publication of its third quarter results on November 4.
The most structurally significant element remains the scope of this revision: the 720 to 740 million euros underlying EBITDA range is established excluding potential revenues or compensatory measures from Sadara for the remainder of the fiscal year.
