In a broadly rising market, Ubisoft finds itself at the bottom of the SBF 120 during trading, accentuating a difficult annual performance. The day before, Alphavalue had nonetheless raised its price target on the stock, a sign that analyst sentiment and market momentum are not yet converging.
Lagging SBF 120 Despite a Rebound of Nearly 12% Over the Month
Ubisoft fell 2.95% to €5.39 in trading, widening its gap with an SBF 120 that advanced 0.43%. The stock holds the last place in the broad index, which contrasts with its monthly performance: +11.63% over thirty days, reflecting a summer rebound that began in late July. Over one year, however, the decline reaches 42.84%, revealing the structural pressure weighing on the value for several months. The CAC 40 gained 0.45% in the same period, illustrating that Ubisoft's underperformance is specific to the stock and not a reflection of a declining market.
Alphavalue Raises Target to €6.60 as Short Positions Remain Very High
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Alphavalue raised its price target on Ubisoft yesterday from €6.16 to €6.60, while maintaining an "accumulate" rating. Against the current price of €5.39, this target represents an upside potential of around 22%. This positive signal nonetheless comes in a context of persistent institutional selling pressure: according to disclosed positions, eleven funds hold a combined 13.17% of shares sold short, with the latest disclosure dated August 24.
This figure is down 2.71 percentage points over thirty days (compared to 15.88% a month ago), signaling a partial covering of bearish positions, without evidence of a massive withdrawal. Following the publication of 2025/2026 annual results on July 17, 2026, Ubisoft identified increased competition in the video game industry among its main risks, while citing the launch of New Game+ as an engagement driver. Resistance at €5.84 constitutes the next technical level to monitor.
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Risks mentioned
Net bookings attendu en baisse d'un pourcentage à un chiffre élevé sur l'exercice 2026-27
Marge opérationnelle non-IFRS attendue négative sur l'exercice 2026-27
Consommation de free cash-flow pouvant atteindre 500 M€ sur l'exercice
Échéances de dette à refinancer : revue en cours des options de financement
Opportunities identified
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Performance record d'Invincible: Guarding the Globe sur le segment Mobile
Pipeline de contenus nettement plus solide en 2027-28 et 2028-29 (Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Ghost Recon)
Retour attendu à un EBIT non-IFRS positif et à une génération de free cash-flow dès 2027-28
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