Valneva Shares Drop 3.1%, Under Technical Pressure
The Lyon-based biotech specializing in vaccines continues to decline during the session, in an otherwise well-oriented SBF 120. The stock is sinking into an unfavorable technical zone, as the company has initiated a reorganization and lowered its revenue expectations for the current fiscal year.
Valneva's stock is down 3.11% at €2.4290 midday, while the SBF 120 is up 0.57% during the session. The decline erases part of the rebound observed in May and brings the loss to nearly 7% for the week. Over three months, the drop reaches 48.65%, indicating that the bearish trend that began earlier in the year has not been absorbed. The price is now below its three moving averages: 3.61% under the MM20 (€2.52), 7.99% below the MM50 (€2.64), and the gap widens to nearly 36% under the MM200 (€3.79). The RSI at 42 remains in a neutral zone, with no sign of seller exhaustion. The support at €2.26, already tested at the beginning of May, becomes the lower boundary to watch in this configuration.
A Reorganization Initiated After a 37% Drop in Revenue in the First Quarter
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The fundamental context remains challenging. During the publication of the first quarter 2026 results (May 13), the company reported a 37% decline in revenue and a net loss of €32.1 million, compared to €9.2 million a year earlier. Following this, Valneva announced a reorganization plan aimed at reducing its operational expenses by 25 to 35% and decreasing its global workforce by 10 to 15%. On this occasion, the company also adjusted its sales forecasts for 2026, now expected to be between €135 and €150 million. Among the factors cited for this revision were decreased sales of third-party products and unfavorable trends in the adoption of travel vaccines. The next significant event is scheduled for tomorrow, with the group's participation in the Northern European Conference on Travel Medicine (NECTM10), where the management will present its portfolio.
SectorSanté · Vaccins et laboratoires de recherche›Industrie Pharmaceutique
Context
Period
Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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