Vicat Shares Up +3.07% at Opening, Sharp Market Disconnect
Vicat has risen by 3.07% to €67.20 this morning, completely diverging from a CAC 40 that is down by 1.26%. This divergence highlights a unique momentum for the French cement company's stock, which continues its upward trend while the broader Paris market declines.
The stock consolidates a remarkable week, recording a cumulative gain of 3.23% over seven days and 17.28% over three months. Over the past year, the increase has reached 95.63%, significantly outperforming the modest progress of the CAC 40, which is limited to 8.08% over the same period. This trajectory is notably supported by the publication of third-quarter figures yesterday, showing an organic growth of 4.9%, as well as a results conference held today at 3 PM. The performance gap between Vicat and the general market can be explained by its very particular sensitivity profile: with a beta of 0.09, the stock moves almost independently of the index fluctuations, providing it with certain immunity to today's downward movements.
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Technically, several indicators converge towards a positive dynamic. The Relative Strength Index stands at 75, theoretically indicating an overbought zone, a situation generally associated with possible profit-taking. However, this signal is offset by a MACD line established at 1.30, above its signal line set at 1.06, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. The stochastic oscillator, on the other hand, produces a buy signal. The Chaikin Money Flow is positive at 0.08, indicating net inflows of liquidity and supporting the idea of ongoing accumulation.
Breaking New Ground
The price has now surpassed €67.20, establishing a new breaking point above the previous resistance threshold set at €65.60. The stock remains well above its 50-day moving average (€61.12) and maintains a comfortable distance from its technical support located at €59.20. Monthly volatility remains contained at 6.60%, indicating an orderly progression rather than a speculative surge. This control of fluctuations, combined with a favorable graphical positioning, characterizes a constructive consolidation phase of the stock.
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Context
Period
Period: 1S2026
Key reported figures
Revenue: 2036M€
EBITDA: 367M€
EBITDA margin: 18,0%
Net income: 133M€
Free cash flow: -36M€
1327M€
Guidance from the release
Une nouvelle fois, le Groupe livre de solides résultats, portés par des hausses de prix dans la quasi-totalité des géographies, la confirmation de la reprise des volumes aux États-Unis et la très bonne dynamique des pays émergents.
Vicat affiche une croissance organique du chiffre d'affaires de +10,8 % (+8,0 % en publié, effet de change défavorable de -69 M€) et un EBITDA en hausse de +13,6 % à périmètre et change constants, avec une marge portée à 18,0 %. La performance est tirée par l'Afrique (Sénégal, four 6), le Brésil, l'Égypte et le Kazakhstan, tandis que l'Europe reste résiliente et que les États-Unis et l'Inde reculent en rentabilité. Le cash-flow libre est négatif à -36 M€ du fait de la saisonnalité et du besoin en fonds de roulement, mais l'endettement net baisse sur un an à 1 327 M€ (leverage 1,65x). Les objectifs 2026 sont relevés.
Risks mentioned
Hausse des coûts de l'énergie devant se matérialiser davantage au second semestre
Effets de change défavorables (dollar, roupie indienne, livres turque et égyptienne)
Visibilité limitée aux États-Unis et en Inde, prix volatils et concurrence tendue
Contexte géopolitique au Moyen-Orient pouvant affecter l'activité et la logistique
Opportunities identified
Contribution en année pleine du four 6 au Sénégal améliorant les coûts de production
Hausses de prix annoncées aux États-Unis à compter de l'été
Acquisition d'Araïko renforçant les capacités en intelligence artificielle industrielle
Demande liée aux data centers dans le Sud-Est des États-Unis
Projet Catch4climate : démarrage du démonstrateur oxyfuel de seconde génération
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.