35% in Three Months: Can ArcelorMittal Continue to Accelerate in a High-Stakes Geopolitical Climate?

A strong rally, but short-term momentum is waning

Over the past year, ArcelorMittal's journey has been remarkable: the stock has nearly doubled, showing a performance of around 94%. The 50-day moving average, at 46.74 euros, remains well above the 200-day moving average (34.72 euros), confirming a solidly entrenched upward trend. However, the current price of 52.88 euros is now slightly below the 20-day moving average (53.55 euros), indicating a short-term momentum slowdown.

The RSI, at 51, shows the stock has returned to neutral territory after a period of strong growth. The 7% correction in one week positions the stock midway between its technical support identified at 43.58 euros and its resistance at 56.92 euros. Additionally, the sector context remains influenced by a major geopolitical escalation in the Middle East: the unprecedented blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the over 10% surge in Brent crude in five days are reshaping equilibria in the commodities markets. For the steelmaker, rising energy costs are a factor to closely monitor, even as steel demand remains tied to the global industrial climate.

Should investors consider the stock after such a performance?

For an investor, the issue of timing is particularly pressing. The recent 7% drop over seven days can be interpreted as a technical consolidation after a major rally, rather than a trend reversal. The stock's very low beta (0.15) historically indicates limited sensitivity to general market fluctuations, which can offer some relative comfort in a tense environment.

Nevertheless, the monthly volatility of 15.67% signals significant short-term movement potential. The technical resistance at 56.92 euros suggests an upward potential of about 7.6% compared to the current price, while the support at 43.58 euros implies a risk of a 17.6% decline if conditions worsen. A major catalyst is on the horizon: the release of the first-quarter results, scheduled for April 30, could provide insight into the impact of the geopolitical environment and rising energy costs on the group's margins. Until then, investors will navigate an environment of increased uncertainty, balancing medium-term upward momentum with short-term caution.