Accor: Why the Stock Continues to Lag Behind the CAC 40

An annual performance lagging behind the CAC 40, marked by three phases of tension

Over the past year, Accor's stock has risen by 3.26%, a performance significantly lagging behind the benchmark index of the Paris market. The stock closed the fiscal year at 48.22 euros, slightly above the resistance level of 48.13 euros. Three downward correction phases impacted its trajectory. The most severe occurred in early April, with a drop of 10.5% over just three sessions, as the stock fell from 40.34 euros to 36.12 euros between April 3 and 7. This decline happened amid a broad profit-taking trend in the travel and leisure sector, after the stock had experienced a temporary rebound. A month earlier, in February, the market had penalized the stock following the announcement of the 2024 annual results, despite the group describing them as « record-breaking. » Despite a revenue increase of 11% to 5.6 billion euros and a rise in gross operating profit by 12% to 1.12 billion euros, the stock fell by 7.4% between February 17 and 21. Investors appeared to be cautious about future prospects. Finally, between August 25 and September 3, another correction of 7.05% brought the price down from 43.95 euros to 40.85 euros, amid a general climate of volatility marked by macroeconomic uncertainties.

Solid semiannual results overshadowed by exchange rate effects

The group reported a « strong momentum despite a complex geopolitical context » in the first half of 2025, but it was the late July release that triggered the most significant reaction. The currency impact weighed on the annual EBITDA by 60 million euros, representing a 5% impact, far exceeding the anticipated 2%. The stock plummeted by 13% to around 43.1 euros, affected by falling revenue in the Dollar zone. Despite well-aligned operational fundamentals, with a 9.4% increase in EBITDA to 552 million euros, surpassing consensus estimates, the market primarily focused on the slowdown of RevPAR and the significant currency impacts. For the entire year, RevPAR was expected to improve between 3% and 4%, a target that was confirmed but considered cautious. The group maintains a structural growth trajectory, with a revised EBITDA margin target of 11-12%, up from the previous 9-10%, supported by additional cost-saving measures amounting to 20 million euros. The business remains buoyed by geographical diversification and an upscale move, particularly in the Luxury & Lifestyle segment, which continues to outperform.

Outlook 2026: Confident Consensus Amid Tight Valuation

Analysts remain generally confident, with unanimous consensus on buying. The average target of 53 euros indicates a potential 10% increase compared to the end-of-year closing price. This gap reflects the disparity between solid fundamentals and a valuation depressed by currency uncertainties and market caution on the growth rate of hotel prices.
Several drivers could come into play in 2026. The group is continuing its share buyback program, with a first tranche of 200 million euros completed in the first half of 2025, followed by a second tranche of 240 million euros. Additionally, the potential stock market listing of Ennismore, its lifestyle subsidiary, has long been cited as a possible value catalyst. However, prospects remain dependent on exchange rate developments, particularly the dollar, and the group's ability to maintain pricing dynamics in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The rebound will also depend on achieving operational efficiency gains and the success of new openings, especially in the luxury segment. While not guaranteed, the scenario of a gradual recovery remains plausible if currencies stabilize and global demand holds up.