Oil at $100: Shell Reaches Historic Record, but Overheating Risk Looms

An Upward Trend Fueled by Geopolitics

The conflict in the Middle East, now in its fourteenth day, has pushed Brent crude above the critical threshold of $100 per barrel, a level driven by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil facilities in the Gulf. As one of the world's leading hydrocarbon producers, Shell is naturally benefitting from this price surge. The stock has risen by 8.39% in just the past week and by 25.8% over the past year.
Technically, the stock is now trading well above its 20-day (35.06 euros), 50-day (33.07 euros), and 200-day (31.85 euros) moving averages, confirming a strong bullish momentum. The price has also surpassed its resistance at 38.54 euros, a previous high reached just the day before. The scheduled payment of the fourth quarter 2025 dividend on March 30 also helps maintain investor interest, despite doubts regarding the exploitation of Qatari LNG.

After a 27% increase in three months, timing becomes a concern

If momentum remains favorable, several signals advise caution. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 85, indicating a pronounced overbought situation. Historically, such a high RSI often signals a potential technical pause or even short-term consolidation, even in a structurally bullish market. The gap between the current price (38.76 euros) and the 50-day moving average (33.07 euros) exceeds 17%, reflecting the speed of the recent rise.

Monthly volatility remains contained at 5.63, but the geopolitical environment remains extremely uncertain: any de-escalation in the Middle East or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp drop in Brent prices and, consequently, the stock. Stock markets are generally declining this Friday: the DAX is down 0.10%, the FTSE 100 is down 0.34%, and Asian indices closed lower the previous day. Shell thus stands out as an exception in a tense market environment. For an investor, the real question isn't about the quality of the asset, which is backed by solid fundamentals and a busy schedule, but about the entry price after such a swift rise. The stock is in uncharted territory, with no technical resistance above the current price. The evolution of the Middle East conflict and the trajectory of oil in the coming days will be crucial for the next phase of movement.