Paris Stock Exchange: CAC 40 Holds Steady Despite Surging Oil Prices and an Overheated Fear Index

A High-Stakes Energy Session

The conflict in the Middle East, which erupted at the end of February, continues to set the pace for global markets. Brent crude has surged nearly 50% in less than a month, holding above the $107 per barrel mark in the morning. This spike is increasing the energy bills for importing countries and reigniting inflationary fears worldwide. Meanwhile, the price of gas (TTF) has doubled over the same period.

In this context, the VIX—often referred to as the « fear index"—stands at 25.09 points, increasing by 12.16%, indicating a high level of market volatility. Traders are proceeding with caution. In Paris, the dispersion remains moderate: 26 CAC 40 stocks are up, while 14 are down. The index is holding steady, but without strong conviction.

The SBF 120 is showing similar behavior, up 0.19% at 5,925.66 points by midday.

Cyclicals and Industry Leading the Gains

In the leading group, Accor takes the lead with a gain of 2.53% to 40.50 euros. The hotel group stands out in a tourism sector under regional pressure, as the security perception index collapses in Gulf countries, from Bahrain to the United Arab Emirates.

ArcelorMittal shows an increase of 1.99% to 43.61 euros. The steel giant benefits from a favorable environment for raw materials, following the general rise in commodity prices due to geopolitical disruptions.

STMicroelectronics gains 1.76% to 28.29 euros, while Saint-Gobain advances by 1.67% to 69.46 euros. Bouygues rounds out the top five gainers with a 1.64% rise to 50.06 euros. Today's winners profile a session favorable to industrial and cyclical stocks, contrary to growth stocks.

Luxury and technology under pressure, Hermès and Dassault Systèmes trailing behind

On the downside, Dassault Systèmes experiences the steepest drop in the CAC 40, down 2.26% at 17.30 euros. Capgemini closely follows with a decline of 2.06% to 99.02 euros. Technology stocks are struggling in an environment of interest rates and inflation that is structurally unfavorable to them.

Hermès International falls 1.75% to 1,711.50 euros. Oddo BHF lowered its price target for the stock on Friday from 2,200 to 1,928 euros, while maintaining its « neutral » rating. This revision reflects the prevailing caution in the luxury sector amid deteriorating confidence among international travelers in the Gulf region, a key market for major European brands.

Publicis decreases by 1.06% to 70.82 euros. Michelin drops 0.84% to 28.48 euros, as Oddo BHF initiated coverage of the stock with a « neutral » rating and reduced its price target from 32 to 30 euros. Additionally, Michelin announced the launch of an intelligent tire solution through its Michelin Connected Fleet division, capable of predicting real-time failures, aimed at heavy-duty vehicle fleets. This innovation was not enough to support the stock on Friday.

In summary, the Paris stock market ends the week cautiously. The ongoing oil shock is reshuffling the sectors, benefiting cyclical stocks at the expense of luxury and technology. It remains to be seen how long this fragile balance can hold amid a continuously climbing oil barrel.