Alstom Jumps 3% Mid-Session After Securing a €1.6 Billion Contract
On November 12, Alstom signed a landmark agreement with PKP Intercity, the Polish national long-distance railway operator, for the delivery of 42 Coradia Max double-deck electric multiple units (EMUs), along with 30 years of full maintenance. The contract, valued at 6.9 billion zlotys (approximately €1.6 billion), also includes an option to purchase an additional 30 trains. This announcement comes as the stock marks a 3.02% increase to €22.87 this Wednesday mid-session, amidst a gradual improvement in its technical indicators following an already positive year in 2025.
Market Performance and Contract Details
Alstom's stock is up 3.02% at €22.87 midday this Wednesday, November 12, outperforming the CAC 40, which is up 1.2% at 8,253.86 points. Trading volume remains moderate with 0.1% of the capital traded. This rise is part of a rebound dynamic that has been underway for several weeks, with the stock posting a weekly performance of 7.42% and an increase of 8.7% over three months. Year-over-year, the stock has gained 11.18%, slightly outperforming the Paris index, which is up 11.13% over the same period. The price is now above its resistance threshold of €22.70, indicating renewed investor interest in the railway sector. The Polish contract serves as a major catalyst for the stock. The Coradia Max fleet, capable of reaching speeds of 200 km/h, will be designed with significant input from Alstom's Polish engineering team and assembled in Poland, combining Alstom's technical excellence with the skills and dedication of Polish specialists at the Chorzów and Nadarzyn sites. This order, to be accounted for in the third quarter of fiscal 2025-2026, strengthens the group's order book in a context where analysts had just downgraded their consensus for fiscal 2025, according to news dated November 11.
Technical Indicators and Stock Dynamics
Technically, several indicators confirm the ongoing upward trend. The stock is now trading above its structural moving averages, with a 50-day moving average at €21.57 and a 200-day moving average at €20.76, both crossed upwards. The gap between these trend indicators is about €0.77, suggesting a gradually establishing positive momentum. The RSI is at 57, in a neutral zone but trending positively, indicating a still moderate buying dynamic with room before reaching an overbought situation. The current positioning of the price relative to the Bollinger Bands reveals a breakout above the recent consolidation zone. With a lower band at €20.96 and an upper band at €22.48, the stock is now trading above this upper limit at €22.87, indicating a potential acceleration of the upward trend. This technical setup suggests that a continuation movement could materialize in the coming sessions, especially as the MACD, although in negative territory with a line at -0.11 and a signal at -0.10, shows a very limited histogram at -0.01, indicating a potential trend reversal. The contained monthly volatility at 6.77 and a low beta of 0.26 confirm a currently less risky profile than the market.
Alstom's Strategic Positioning and Future Outlook
Alstom's situation is gradually improving after several challenging years marked by the complex integration of Bombardier Transport. The signing of this Polish contract demonstrates the railway manufacturer's ability to win strategic tenders against competitors, notably Stadler. The strengthened geographical presence in Eastern Europe, with over 4,700 employees in Poland according to the official press release, now constitutes a major competitive advantage for the French group. The upcoming sessions will be crucial to confirm whether or not the resistance threshold of €22.70 is durably surpassed, with a potential for continued upward movement towards the year's highs around €26 if trading volumes consolidate.
