Alstom's Stock Rebounds Over 2% but Remains Below Its Moving Averages
The railway manufacturer benefits from a well-oriented session in Paris to gain some ground. However, the stock remains heavily penalized over three months and continues to trade below its main moving averages.
A Modest Technical Rebound Leaves the Stock 26% Below Its 200-Day Moving Average
Alstom's stock is up 2.1% at €16.53 in mid-afternoon trading, with the CAC 40 up 0.9%. The stock benefits from the overall market improvement following a principle agreement between Washington and Tehran, which has led to a roughly 4% drop in Brent crude prices. However, the rebound remains technical: the stock is still down nearly 7% over a month and more than 29% over three months. The price is trading below the 20-day moving average (€16.86, a gap of -1.96%) and significantly below the 50-day (€18.25) and 200-day (€22.57, a gap of -26.76%) moving averages.
The RSI at 34 indicates seller exhaustion over the past weeks without a clear reversal signal, as the stock approaches its support at €15.75. Regarding short positions, three funds accumulate 3.05% of the capital sold short, according to reviewed declarations. The bearish bet has decreased by 0.77 points over thirty days, after peaking at 3.82%. This gradual easing suggests a beginning of covering positions, without yet indicating a shift in sentiment on the stock.
A Strong Commercial Activity That Fails to Halt the Underlying Downtrend
Yet, the industrial news remains plentiful. On June 10th, Alstom finalized its first hybrid green bond for €700 million, with a 5.25% coupon, as part of its €1.5 billion EMTN program. In early June, the group also secured the first €69 million tranche of a €219 million framework contract for the modernization of Queensland's railway network, in preparation for the 2032 Olympics. At the end of May, the TGV-M developed with SNCF Voyageurs received its European market authorization, with commercial deployment planned for this summer.
This commercial momentum is not yet reflected in the stock's trajectory, with the stock showing a decline of more than 12% over a year. Based on the consensus of analysts compiled, the stock is trading at approximately 9.7 times the expected earnings for the current fiscal year and 7.8 times those for the next fiscal year. The immediate technical resistance at €17.77 remains the hurdle before any return towards the 50-day moving average.
