Alstom Shares in Oversold Territory After a 36% Drop in Three Months: May 13th to be Decisive
In the mid-afternoon of Monday, April 27, shares of the railway manufacturer traded at 16.91 euros, up 2.33% from last Friday's close. This rebound occurs in a challenging context for the stock, which has lost more than a third of its capitalization since the end of January. The 2025/2026 annual results expected on May 13th will be a crucial event.
A Technical Rebound in a Marked Downtrend
Alstom's stock price gains some ground this Monday, supported by a 0.33% increase in the CAC 40 during the session. However, the stock still shows a decline of 18.45% over the year and nearly 36% over three months, positioning it among the significant drops in the SBF 120. Technically, the RSI is at 25, indicating an oversold zone, which reflects prolonged selling pressure. The price also moves at the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, only 14% above the lower boundary set at 15.13 euros, confirming this potential oversold situation. The 50-day moving average is at 24.41 euros, significantly above the current price, illustrating the magnitude of the recent drop. The first identified support is at 16.52 euros, corresponding to last Friday's close and which served as a floor during the previous session. In the same European industrial sector, Schneider Electric is up by 0.87% in the session, and Airbus gains 0.18%, moderate variations that do not indicate a pronounced sector movement.
The May 13th Announcement in Focus
The next identified catalyst for the stock is the publication of the annual results for the 2025/2026 fiscal year, scheduled for May 13th. This event will focus attention on the group's profitability trajectory and the evolution of its order book, two crucial parameters after the restructuring undertaken in recent years. Revenue and free cash flow generation will be particularly monitored. Additionally, the sustained rise in energy prices, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz with Brent crude around 107 dollars, could impact the group's operating costs, although the railway sector remains less directly exposed than air transport. Notably, Alstom's negative beta (-0.16) indicates an unusual decorrelation with the market, making the stock less sensitive to general market movements. The monthly volatility is at 14.59%, a level that reflects the uncertainty surrounding the stock as this major accounting deadline approaches.
