Amundi Stock Slides Towards Its Support at €71.60 Following Two Analyst Downgrades
The Paris-listed asset manager experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, April 7, in a cautious market environment. The stock is trading at €72.50, down 2.16% from the last close, following two major banks revising their price targets downward during the day.
The session was marked by the simultaneous publication of two price target revisions on Amundi. Morgan Stanley reduced its target from €86.60 to €83.00, while maintaining its 'market-weight' recommendation. Citi, on the other hand, lowered its target from €84.50 to €79.50, also maintaining a 'neutral' stance. Despite these adjustments, both targets remain significantly above the current price of €72.50, indicating a potential revaluation of approximately 14.5% and 9.7% respectively. These revisions come three weeks ahead of the first quarter results scheduled for April 29, an event that could provide new insights into the group's collection dynamics and margins. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 is down by 0.48% at 7,924.16 points, and the SBF 120 also falls by 0.48%. In the financial sector, BNP Paribas shows almost stability (+0.08%) and AXA slightly down by 0.17%, placing Amundi among the most pronounced declines in the segment.
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From a technical standpoint, the stock is currently priced at €72.50, very close to its identified support at €71.60. This level is a threshold to watch: a downward breach could lead to a further phase of weakness. The 50-day moving average, which stands at €75.99, remains well above the current price, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The stock has also lost 0.75% over the last seven days. Moreover, the price is positioned in the lower part of the Bollinger Bands, at 24% of the range defined between the lower bound (€71.32) and the upper bound (€76.19). This positioning indicates selling pressure that brings the stock closer to its potential oversold zone, although the lower bound has not yet been breached. Over one year, the stock still maintains a positive performance of 15.81%, supported by a 200-day moving average established at €69.62, which is still below the current price.
Au troisième trimestre, Amundi a prolongé les dynamiques positives avec une collecte de +15 Md€, une hausse des revenus de +5% et une progression du résultat avant impôt de +4 %.
Collecte soutenue (9M +67 Md€, T3 +15 Md€), encours record 2 317 Md€, croissance des revenus (+4,9 % 9M ajusté), forte progression d'Amundi Technology (+48% 9M/9M) et bonne dynamique des ETF (+28 Md€ 9M). Résultats ajustés en hausse: résultat avant impôt ajusté 9M 1 340 M€, résultat net ajusté 9M 978 M€.
Risks mentioned
Incertitude sur le renouvellement du contrat de distribution UniCredit à échéance juillet 2027
Risque de change: effet défavorable du dollar US (-12%) et de la roupie indienne (-15%) sur les encours
Risque de réallocation de l'EPFO pouvant entraîner sorties pour SBI FM (30-40 Md€ évoqués)
Volatilité des marchés pouvant impacter les encours et la collecte
Opportunities identified
Croissance en Asie (collecte 9M +29 Md€, forte contribution des JV et distribution directe)
Distribution Tiers et plateformes digitales (collecte 9M +21 Md€, 34% de la collecte via plateformes digitales)
Actifs privés et stratégies Megatendances (levée Mégatendances III 0,3 Md€)
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.