ASML Shares Surge 5.7% at Close Following Morgan Stanley Recommendation
Shares of Dutch giant ASML saw a significant increase of 5.7% this Wednesday, November 26, closing at 909.30 euros on the Amsterdam market. This performance is part of a favorable market context, with the CAC 40 up 0.88% at 8,096.43 points. The lithography equipment manufacturer continues its rebound that began several weeks ago, driven by catalyzing news during the session.
Impact of Morgan Stanley's Upgrade
The surge in the stock this Wednesday originates from a note by Morgan Stanley that upgraded ASML to 'Top Pick' in the European semiconductor sector, raising its price target to 1,000 euros from 975 euros. This recommendation comes as the stock was already up 5.05% over seven days and 40.61% over three months, demonstrating strong momentum. Over the past year, the performance has reached 39.46%, significantly outperforming the CAC 40's 11.56% over the same period. Trading volumes remained contained, with only 0.18% of capital changing hands during the session. Analyst Lee Simpson justifies this positive outlook by ASML's strategic position in the technological transition of DRAM memories, benefiting from producers moving to nodes 1a, 1b, and 1c, which require more EUV layers per wafer. This dynamic is further strengthened by the gradual recovery of orders from giants like Samsung and SK Hynix, with indications suggesting new requests in 2026 not yet accounted for in current order books. The company had published its third-quarter results on October 15, reporting revenue of 7.5 billion euros and a net result of 2.1 billion euros, while maintaining an annual growth forecast of 15% for fiscal 2025.
Technical Perspective on Stock Performance
From a technical standpoint, the stock is now well above its 50-day moving average established at 865.72 euros, indicating a confirmed upward trend. The gap with the 200-day moving average, which stands at 759.77 euros, also shows a favorable medium-term dynamic, with a difference of nearly 150 euros. However, the price is approaching the resistance threshold identified at 937.50 euros, which will be a key test in the coming sessions, while the support is at 834 euros. The RSI is reading at 38, a positioning that suggests the stock is not in an overbought zone despite its recent progress, leaving room for technical maneuver for the continuation of the upward movement. This RSI setup, combined with a negative MACD histogram at -5.28, indicates a reversal phase underway after a period of correction. The one-month volatility remains high at 9.43, reflecting the amplitude of the stock's movements in a market sensitive to expectations about the semiconductor sector.
Future Outlook Amid Challenges
During the publication of its quarterly results, CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged that sales in China are expected to 'decline significantly' in 2026, a point of vigilance for investors. However, the management specified that they do not expect total sales for 2026 to fall below the level of 2025, thus providing reassuring visibility. The company retains its unique quasi-monopoly position on EUV lithography equipment, essential for manufacturing the most advanced chips used in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. Morgan Stanley anticipates stable margins despite a possible slowdown in DUV technologies, thanks to a richer product mix and increasing profitability of services, estimating the gross margin at 52.3% in 2026. This outlook reassures investors in a context where demand related to artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to support the Dutch group's prospects.
