AXA Shares Bounce Back 2.43% After a 5% Drop Last Week
Midday Tuesday sees AXA shares climbing 2.43% to 38.39 euros, after closing at 37.48 euros the previous day. This rebound occurs amidst a general uptick in European markets, with the CAC 40 gaining 2.31% during the session. Last week, however, the insurer had dropped by 5.28%, highlighting the recent volatility of the stock.
On Tuesday, AXA's stock price is significantly above the support threshold identified at 37.46 euros, a level that was nearly touched at Monday's close. This level has acted as a technical floor, aiding the stock's recovery. Nevertheless, the stock remains below its 50-day moving average of 39.27 euros and even more so below its 200-day average of 40.15 euros, indicating a still fragile medium-term underlying trend. The RSI, an indicator measuring the momentum of a price movement on a scale from 0 to 100, is at 40. This level, close to the traditionally set oversold zone of 30, suggests that selling pressure has intensified in recent weeks without reaching an extreme. Over three months, the stock has lost 1.64%, and it is down 0.95% over a year, showing a gradual erosion in valuation from its recent peaks.
Widespread Gains in European Markets Boost Session
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Today's session benefits from a widespread bullish movement across European stock exchanges. The DAX is up 2.22%, while the FTSE 100 has advanced 1.67%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed up 2.88% and the Hang Seng increased by 2.17%. This renewed interest in risk assets accompanies AXA's rebound, although the stock's very low beta (0.06) indicates a historically limited sensitivity to index fluctuations. It should be noted that the VIX, the S&P 500's implied volatility index, was at 29.49 points in its last update on March 6, up sharply by 24.17% from the previous day. This high level reflects a still tense market environment, despite the recovery observed this Tuesday. On the calendar, the next significant date for AXA is its annual general meeting, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
we expect underlying earnings of circa. Euro 8.6 billion with underlying EPS growth at the top end of the target range
Risks mentioned
Softening market conditions in large commercial P&C
Natural catastrophe exposure with normalized Nat Cat load of 4.5 points of combined ratio
Interest rate sensitivity with -50bp interest rates shock expected to result in -1pt impact in Solvency II ratio
Opportunities identified
Growth in Life & Savings segment driven by ageing populations and pressure on existing systems
Expansion in direct distribution channel with rising demand for affordable insurance and digital experiences
Deployment of AI across value chain with expected annual recurring benefits of €500-700m (pre-tax) by 2029
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: 500 millions d'euros
Expected net income: 8 600 millions d'euros
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.