AXA's stock closed on Tuesday, January 13th at 39.00 euros, down 1.89% from the previous day. Liquidity remained modest with 0.18% of the capital traded during the day. This decline is part of an unfavorable weekly trend, with the stock experiencing a decrease of 4.46% over seven days and 1.42% over three months. However, over the past year, the insurer still maintains a gain of 15.25%. The price is now below its 50-day moving average set at 39.29 euros, indicating a short-term technical weakening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30, reaching the oversold zone which could favor a technical rebound if buyers step in. The stock is also approaching a key support threshold at 38.19 euros, a level that will be a critical test in the upcoming sessions. Conversely, a major resistance looms at 41.20 euros.
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On a fundamental level, several financial institutions have expressed their confidence in the stock. Deutsche Bank recently reaffirmed its buy rating with a target price of 45.00 euros on January 7, representing a potential increase of 15.4% from the current price. KBW maintains its outperform recommendation with a target raised to 47.00 euros, while AlphaValue/Baader Europe aims for 44.90 euros, advising to accumulate. These valuations suggest a significant appreciation margin for patient investors. The next key event awaited by the market will be the publication of the annual results for 2025 on February 26th, followed by the general meeting scheduled for April 30th. These two events could clarify the operational trajectory of the group and rekindle investor interest in a context of attractive valuation.
we expect underlying earnings of circa. Euro 8.6 billion with underlying EPS growth at the top end of the target range
Risks mentioned
Softening market conditions in large commercial P&C
Natural catastrophe exposure with normalized Nat Cat load of 4.5 points of combined ratio
Interest rate sensitivity with -50bp interest rates shock expected to result in -1pt impact in Solvency II ratio
Opportunities identified
Growth in Life & Savings segment driven by ageing populations and pressure on existing systems
Expansion in direct distribution channel with rising demand for affordable insurance and digital experiences
Deployment of AI across value chain with expected annual recurring benefits of €500-700m (pre-tax) by 2029
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: 500 millions d'euros
Expected net income: 8 600 millions d'euros
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
