Ayvens share price falls below €8.60 and marks an unprecedented low

A price below the three moving averages, at €8.77

The stock loses 2.18% to €8.77, following a close at €8.96 in the last session. It has fallen 16.28% over one month and 24.24% over three months, a decline that distances it from its moving averages: the 20-day MA (€9.33) is 6.06% above the price, the 200-day MA (€11.02) is at 20.46%. The €8.60 support level, the last reference point before new lows, is now only 2% away from the current price.

The RSI at 33.26 remains outside the oversold zone, whereas it had fallen to 19 at the beginning of October, a sign that the most violent selling phase is behind the stock. The Ayvens share also ranks at the bottom of the SBF 120, which is declining 1.3% during trading, while the CAC 40 is down 1.33%. The stock had already broken its €10.33 support on September 21, the day when the group raised its 2029 targets with a tangible equity return targeted between 14% and 16%.

Valuation, share buyback and pressure on French debt

Despite the decline, the valuation remains low: according to the consensus of analysts surveyed, the stock is trading at approximately 7 times current fiscal year earnings and 6.4 times next year's, with expected earnings per share growth of 8.9%. The group is also continuing a €450 million share buyback program announced on July 30 and executed at approximately 34% as of October 9 (€151 million repurchased). The Paris session is marked by tension over French debt following the weekend violence: the 10-year OAT is at 4.79% according to the latest Bank of France reading of October 16, or 1.37 percentage points above the Bund. The analyst consensus and the publication of its quarterly results will need to be monitored to assess the holding of the €8.60 support level.