Carrefour Shares Drop 2.5% and Fall Below Short-Term Moving Averages
Carrefour's stock is significantly in the red mid-morning, contrary to a nearly stable CAC 40. The retailer ranks among the worst performers on the Paris index, despite no negative catalysts being identified for the stock. The share has fallen below its short-term moving averages.
Carrefour Among the Sharpest Declines in the CAC 40 This Wednesday Morning
Carrefour's stock is down by 2.29% at €16.235, marking one of the sharpest declines in the CAC 40. Only Orange performs worse on the index, with a drop of 3.88%. This movement contrasts with the previous session, where the stock had closed at €16.615, while the Paris index barely lost 0.03%. The retailer thus erases the slight rebound observed at the beginning of the week, following a nearly 5% decline accumulated over the past month. The market context remains marked by the G7 summit in Évian and the Federal Reserve meeting chaired for the first time by Kevin Warsh, with outcomes expected this Wednesday evening.
The Stock Falls Below Its Short-Term Moving Averages and Moves Away from €16.42
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Today's decline brings the price below the MM20 at €16.42 (a gap of -1.13%) and below the MM50 at €16.64 (-2.43%), two benchmarks that the stock had regained during the session of June 11. However, the MM200 remains well below, at €14.58, providing a cushion of more than 11% that preserves the underlying trend, consistent with a gain of 26% over the year. The RSI at 53 remains neutral, showing no signs of exhaustion, while the technical support is located at €15.71, about 3% below the current price. In terms of valuation, the consensus of surveyed analysts reveals a multiple of about 9.2 times the expected earnings for the current fiscal year, with an anticipated BPA growth of 6.3% from one year to the next. The session now revolves around maintaining the support level of €15.71, a key level for the short-term technical dynamic.
Objectifs 2026 confirmes : croissance du ROC, marge operationnelle en hausse de plus de 25 pbs vs 2025, cash-flow libre net en croissance vs 2025 (1 565 M€), resultat net ajuste par action en croissance dans le haut de la fourchette a un chiffre. Plan d'economies de 1 Md€ confirme (490 M€ realises au S1).
Risks mentioned
Résultat non courant dégradé à -165 M€ contre -39 M€ au S1 2025
ROC des Autres pays à -34 M€, fortement pénalisé par l'Argentine
Marge commerciale en baisse de -28 pbs à 19,1 % du CA lié aux investissements prix
Opportunities identified
490 M€ d'économies de coûts réalisées au S1, en ligne avec l'objectif de 1 Md€ pour 2026
Objectif confirmé de 130 M€ de synergies Cora & Match à horizon 2027
Cession de Carrefour Roumanie finalisée pour environ 500 M€ et recentrage sur 3 pays cœur
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