Carrefour Shares Plunge 5.5% After JP Morgan's Doubts
Carrefour's stock takes a heavy hit at the opening, contrary to a well-oriented CAC 40. The retailer suffers a market perception downgrade as it breaks through a closely watched technical support.
JP Morgan rates 'underweight' with a target price of €10
JP Morgan rates 'underweight' and sets a target price of €10. The bank believes that the semi-annual report expected on July 23, 2026, might disappoint, following a recovery in the stock which, according to them, has already incorporated a more favorable reading. Estimates for the current half-year's operating profit vary among analysts. For the full year, JP Morgan targets €2.21 billion, versus €2.37 billion for the consensus, and justifies its caution by a recent trend of the group to miss expectations.
At the current price, the €10 target implies a potential downside of about 36%. For reference, according to the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock is trading at approximately 8.8 times the earnings of the current fiscal year. This warning comes after a session already weighed down, with the stock having lost 2.5% the previous day and fallen below its short-term moving averages, as shown in Wednesday's session.
The €15.71 support broken during the session, the stock joins the CAC 40's laggards
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On the stock market, Carrefour loses 5.35% to €15.56, becoming the CAC 40's worst performer while the index advances 0.4% at the start of the session. Today's drop is accompanied by an unfavorable technical breach: the support identified at €15.71 was broken downwards in the morning, and the stock remains below it. The medium-term configuration also worsens, with the price now nearly 5% below the MM20 (€16.37) and 6.5% under the MM50 (€16.64), while the MM200 (€14.60) still offers a cushion of about 6.6%.
The RSI at 49 remains neutral, indicating that today's penalty is more of a sudden shock rather than a sign of an exhausted downward trend. Over a year, the stock still holds a gain of more than 21%, but it has now lost nearly 9% over a month. The next significant event remains the semi-annual publication on July 23, 2026, explicitly targeted by JP Morgan's 'catalyst watch'.
Objectifs 2026 confirmes : croissance du ROC, marge operationnelle en hausse de plus de 25 pbs vs 2025, cash-flow libre net en croissance vs 2025 (1 565 M€), resultat net ajuste par action en croissance dans le haut de la fourchette a un chiffre. Plan d'economies de 1 Md€ confirme (490 M€ realises au S1).
Risks mentioned
Résultat non courant dégradé à -165 M€ contre -39 M€ au S1 2025
ROC des Autres pays à -34 M€, fortement pénalisé par l'Argentine
Marge commerciale en baisse de -28 pbs à 19,1 % du CA lié aux investissements prix
Opportunities identified
490 M€ d'économies de coûts réalisées au S1, en ligne avec l'objectif de 1 Md€ pour 2026
Objectif confirmé de 130 M€ de synergies Cora & Match à horizon 2027
Cession de Carrefour Roumanie finalisée pour environ 500 M€ et recentrage sur 3 pays cœur
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.