The Stock Falls Below Its Short-Term Moving Averages, Losing 2% During the Session
Carrefour's stock drops 2% to €15.92, at the bottom of the CAC 40 while the Paris index only falls by 0.27%. The retailer is the worst performer in the index, trailing behind Schneider Electric and Engie, in a session where cyclical stocks (Renault, Stellantis, Airbus) drive the market. The stock has fallen below its MM20 at €16.23 (a gap of -1.88%) and is moving away from its MM50 at €16.56 (-3.83%), while still maintaining a cushion of nearly 8% over the MM200 at €14.77. The RSI at 49 remains in the neutral zone, not indicating significant selling pressure. The technical support at €15.43 remains the next benchmark downward, about 3% from the current price.
Completion of Romanian Divestiture Fails to Support Stock Despite €150M Special Dividend
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The group finalized on Tuesday the divestiture of its activities in Romania to Paval Holding, accompanied by a special dividend of €150M. The transaction, part of the group's strategic refocusing initiated several quarters ago, was largely anticipated by the market following the initial announcement and does not support the stock price this Wednesday. Over a year, the stock still shows a performance of more than 33%, but its trajectory has slowed since the downturn on June 18, when the stock plunged 5.5% following a downgrade by JP Morgan. According to the consensus of analysts surveyed, the stock is trading at about 9.1 times the expected earnings for the current fiscal year, with projected EPS growth of 7.2% year-over-year. Today's decline brings the stock back to its support zone at €15.43, a level to watch for the remainder of the session.
Objectifs 2026 confirmes : croissance du ROC, marge operationnelle en hausse de plus de 25 pbs vs 2025, cash-flow libre net en croissance vs 2025 (1 565 M€), resultat net ajuste par action en croissance dans le haut de la fourchette a un chiffre. Plan d'economies de 1 Md€ confirme (490 M€ realises au S1).
Risks mentioned
Résultat non courant dégradé à -165 M€ contre -39 M€ au S1 2025
ROC des Autres pays à -34 M€, fortement pénalisé par l'Argentine
Marge commerciale en baisse de -28 pbs à 19,1 % du CA lié aux investissements prix
Opportunities identified
490 M€ d'économies de coûts réalisées au S1, en ligne avec l'objectif de 1 Md€ pour 2026
Objectif confirmé de 130 M€ de synergies Cora & Match à horizon 2027
Cession de Carrefour Roumanie finalisée pour environ 500 M€ et recentrage sur 3 pays cœur
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