Dassault Aviation Stock: 2% Decline After Hitting Resistance at 343 Euros
Dassault Aviation's stock fell by 2.04% this Tuesday morning to 336.20 euros, after reaching the threshold of 343.20 euros the previous day. This movement occurs in a context of still remarkable annual performance, with an increase of over 53%. The publication of the 2025 annual results, scheduled for March 4th next year, is the next major event for the aircraft manufacturer.
Dassault Aviation's stock lost ground this Tuesday after encountering resistance during the previous session at 343.20 euros. This level represents the recent high of the stock and marks a technical friction zone where profit-taking has intensified. The decline brings the value to 336.20 euros, down 2.04% from Monday's close. In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term dynamic remains positive. The 50-day moving average, which stands at 300.35 euros, is significantly above the 200-day average (290.09 euros), indicating a structurally intact bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 remains in a mid-range, away from overbought levels, suggesting that the stock still has some room to maneuver before reaching excessive tensions. The most significant support is at 291.60 euros, a substantial gap from the current levels.
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The next identified catalyst for the stock is the publication of the 2025 annual results, scheduled for March 4th, 2026. This event will focus attention on the growth trajectory of the French aircraft manufacturer, whose stock has risen 22.61% over the last three months and 53.66% over the past year. These performances reflect the progressive revaluation of the stock in a context where the European defense sector is experiencing a structural resurgence of interest. The financial calendar also includes a general meeting of shareholders on May 13th, followed by the presentation of semi-annual accounts on July 22nd. Over the past week, the stock has posted a modest gain of 1.33%, after the pronounced rally of recent weeks. The volatility measured over a month is at 10.75, a moderate level that reflects a relative stability of trading despite the recent significant market trajectory. The almost zero beta (-0.02) further underlines the stock's low correlation with the overall market, a characteristic of the defense value.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
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