Dassault Aviation's Stock Shatters Its Historical Record Following the Unveiling of the Falcon 10X
This Thursday, Dassault Aviation recorded a historical high at €355.60, surpassing the previous peak of €354.80 reached on February 20th. The stock advanced by 3.25% during the session, moving against a CAC 40 that declined by 0.39%. This surge occurred the day after the official presentation of the Falcon 10X, the new long-range business aircraft from the manufacturer.
Dassault Aviation benefits from the momentum generated by the unveiling of the Falcon 10X, presented on Wednesday at the Bordeaux-Mérignac site. Described as the manufacturer's most ambitious aircraft, it aims to redefine benchmarks for comfort and performance in the long-range business aviation segment. The French group thus seeks to strengthen its position against its American and Canadian competitors in a rapidly expanding niche. The stock has shown an increase of 31.61% over three months and 23.39% over a year, illustrating a particularly strong stock market performance. The next major appointment for shareholders is scheduled for May 13 with the general assembly, followed by the publication of the half-year results on July 22. These events will provide visibility on the commercial impact of the new Falcon program in the company's accounts.
Surpassing Technical Resistance
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By surpassing the technical resistance located at €353.40, Dassault Aviation's stock sends a significant signal. It now trades above its 50-day moving average of €324.10, confirming a medium-term bullish trend. The RSI, at 48, remains in a neutral zone, suggesting that the progression is not yet accompanied by an overbought situation and leaves room for further movement. This performance stands out in a rather hesitant market environment. The CAC 40 loses 0.39% during the session, the SBF 120 falls by 0.34%, and the DAX drops 0.10%. The low beta of the stock, at 0.20, indicates limited sensitivity to general market fluctuations, a characteristic consistent with the profile of a group positioned in long cycles in defense and business aviation. The next support threshold to watch is at €312.20, while the upper Bollinger band at €358.23 now represents the next short-term technical vigilance zone.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
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