Eramet Stock: Significant Decline Following Announcement of Reduced Nickel Quota in Indonesia
Eramet's stock is under significant pressure this Wednesday, down more than 4% at midday, priced at 60.90 euros. This drop follows an announcement regarding a reduced production quota for the mining group's Indonesian joint venture. Over the week, the stock has now declined by nearly 12%.
On February 11, Eramet confirmed that its joint venture PT Weda Bay Nickel was notified by the Indonesian authorities of an annual production and sales volume limited to 12 million metric tons, compared to an initially planned RKAB of 32 million metric tons for 2025, revised to 42 million in July 2025. This allocation represents a significant reduction from the quotas previously assigned. PT Weda Bay Nickel, a strategic site for the group's nickel activities, is co-owned by Eramet along with local and international partners. Indonesia, the world's leading nickel producer, has been regulating the volumes extracted on its territory for several years to better control the global supply and support local ore processing. This decision directly impacts the revenue prospects of Eramet's nickel division, in a context where metal prices remain under pressure on international markets.
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From a technical perspective, Eramet's stock price has significantly fallen below its 50-day moving average, currently at 64.10 euros, confirming a shift in short-term dynamics towards a bearish orientation. However, the stock still maintains a positive gap with its 200-day moving average (55.04 euros), which serves as the next reference level before the technical support identified at 54.30 euros. The RSI at 33 is approaching the oversold zone, generally associated with intensive selling pressure. It is noteworthy that despite this pronounced weekly correction, the three-month performance remains positive at 15.34%, while the annual gain is set at 6.56%. The amplitude of monthly volatility, measured at 21.64, reflects significant price movements in the recent period, exacerbated by the uncertainty related to Indonesian regulation.
SectorMétaux et matières premières›Métaux non ferreux
Context
Period
Period: 3T 2025
Guidance from the release
Malgré un contexte de marché difficile, Eramet a maintenu un niveau d’activité solide, grâce à l’engagement et à l’agilité de ses équipes.
Conjoncture macroéconomique incertaine pesant sur la demande et les prix; marchés du manganèse, nickel et lithium globalement en excédent au T3 2025 avec pression sur les prix; perturbations logistiques au Gabon et incertitudes réglementaires en Indonésie.
Risks mentioned
Difficultés logistiques sur le réseau ferroviaire gabonais (Transgabonais) affectant le transport du minerai
Pression des prix et faible demande macroéconomique
Risque de non-respect du covenant de gearing au 31/12/2025 (waiver demandé)
Enquête des autorités indonésiennes sur une partie de la concession PT WBN
Opportunities identified
Montée en cadence robuste de la production de carbonate de lithium (usine Centenario) — volumes 2 080 t-LCE au T3 2025, objectif 4 - 7 kt-LCE en 2025
Rebond des volumes et chiffre d’affaires de PT WBN (forte progression des ventes externes de minerai de nickel)
Programme d’amélioration de la performance opérationnelle et financière (cash boost, optimisation capex, réduction coûts)
Ajustement du plan de capex pour préserver trésorerie (capex 2025 entre 400 M€ et 425 M€)
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