LVMH share drops towards 408 € and briefly tests its key support level
In a market already weakened by anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate hike and surging oil prices, LVMH is experiencing one of the sharpest declines on the Paris index this Tuesday. Two target price revisions published in recent hours by major brokerage firms have intensified pressure on the stock, already burdened by several consecutive weeks of decline.
Two analyst opinions lower their targets on LVMH during a falling trading session
On Tuesday, two revisions of analyst opinions added pressure on the stock. Bernstein reduced its price target from 600 € to 520 €, while maintaining its opinion at "outperform". Morgan Stanley, whose revision dates from the previous day, lowered its target from 520 € to 450 €, also keeping its opinion at "equal weight".
These two new targets remain above the current price of 408.10 €, but represent a significant recalibration of expectations: Bernstein's target implies an upside potential of approximately 27% from current levels, while Morgan Stanley's brings it down to around 10%. This coordinated movement of downward revisions occurs in a difficult sector context, where jewelry sales in China fell 10.1% year-over-year in July 2026 and Swiss watch exports to this market plummeted 18.5%, weighing on all luxury groups exposed to Asian demand.
The stock briefly pierces its support at 406.50 € and falls below its three moving averages
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The LVMH share declines 2.24% to 408.10 € during the session, ranking among the steepest falls on the CAC 40, which itself retreats 0.86%. Intraday, the stock briefly breached its support at 406.50 €, hitting a session low of 405.80 €, before rising slightly above this threshold. This passage below the support, even if temporary, extends the bearish momentum observed since early September: the stock is now down 10.97% over one month and -20.07% over three months, moving away from its three moving averages. The price is below the 20-day MA at 439.47 € (gap of -7.14%), the 50-day MA at 463.57 € (gap of -11.97%) and the 200-day MA at 511.25 € (gap of -20.18%).
The RSI at 35 is approaching the oversold zone without decisively entering it. On this macro level, the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, in a context of 10-year U.S. yields rising back above 5%, tends to weigh on all risky assets. The support at 406.50 €, already tested during the session, remains the level to watch for the coming sessions.
LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026
Risks mentioned
Uncertain geopolitical and economic environment affecting global business activity
Slowdown in demand in China impacting Fashion & Leather Goods segment
Market sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations (negative 3% impact in 9M 2026)
Opportunities identified
Continued growth in Watches & Jewelry with 8% organic growth driven by strong jewelry performance
Strong performance of Sephora in Selective Retailing with market share gains and network expansion
Recovery in Wines & Spirits champagne business and good momentum in Asia for Hennessy cognac
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026. Despite an economic and geopolitical environment that remains uncertain, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
