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MEDINCELL Stock Drops 9.8% Amid Disappointments from Uzedy Sales in Q3

MEDINCELL's stock accelerates its decline on Thursday. The French biotech suffers a second consecutive day of significant losses following Wednesday's announcement of Uzedy sales results, its main product marketed in the US through its partner Teva Pharmaceuticals. Despite robust annual growth, the Q3 figures have disappointed the market.


MEDINCELL Stock Drops 9.8% Amid Disappointments from Uzedy Sales in Q3

Significant Drop in Share Price

Listed at 32.04 euros midday Thursday, the stock has dropped 9.8% from the previous close of 35.52 euros. This decline, following a drop of more than 5% on Wednesday, brings the stock to one of its lowest levels in recent weeks. Only 0.66% of shares were traded during the session, indicating moderate trading intensity, which underscores the vigor of the selling despite a limited order book. The contrast is striking: over three months, the stock still shows a gain of 104.1%, while the annual gain is 109.4%. In comparison, the CAC 40 only lost 0.53% on the same day. This correction thus occurs against a backdrop of profit-taking after a remarkable surge, which the market seems to want to correct under the weight of disappointing news from overseas. The long-term performance contrasts sharply with the immediate trend: the last three months have seen MEDINCELL outperform the benchmark index, but the past week shows a sharp reversal of sentiment with a decline of 12.03%.

Quarterly Sales Disappoint Despite Annual Growth

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Teva Pharmaceuticals, which has been marketing Uzedy in the United States since May 2023, unveiled on Wednesday the Q3 sales figures for the product, a subcutaneous injection of risperidone for the treatment of schizophrenia. Sales reached $43 million, up 24% year-over-year from Q3 2024. Over the first nine months of 2025, the product generated $136 million, an 82% increase year-over-year. However, the market focused on the sequential dynamics: the quarterly comparison reveals a decline of 20.37% from the second quarter, where Uzedy had reached $54 million. This contraction sufficiently troubled traders to trigger selling despite sustained annual growth. Analysts attribute this dip to a temporary adjustment related to Medicaid discounts, a temporary phenomenon according to received comments. Teva reaffirmed its sales forecast for 2025 at $190 to $200 million, implying a guidance of $54 to $64 million for the fourth quarter, suggesting a recovery. Observers note that the fourth quarter traditionally benefits from favorable seasonality, which could enable the laboratory to reach at least the upper end of its range. Analyst recommendations remain largely constructive: Jefferies maintains a buy rating with a target of 50 euros, while Portzamparc also recommends buying at 36.10 euros. However, TP Icap has downgraded the stock from buy to hold, setting its target at 32 euros.

Technical Analysis Indicates Emerging Bearish Momentum

Technically, the RSI at 57 indicates a position close to equilibrium, without marked overselling. The MACD shows a line at 2.84 euros against a signal at 3.10, producing a slightly negative histogram of ?0.26, which signals emerging bearish momentum. The one-month volatility stands at 23.36%, reflecting continuous oscillations. The stock is trading close to its 50-day moving average (26.55 euros) and well above its 200-day average (18.22 euros), maintaining a technically bullish long-term structure. The major support is located at 22.26 euros, while the key resistance remains set at 38.46 euros.



Sector Santé · Biotechnologies · Pharmacie Biotechnologie


Assurance vie

Context

Period
  • Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
  • We are pleased with the company’s growth and momentum.
  • Total income €14,1 million; Revenues €11,6 million (+35 %); UZEDY® royalties €4,2 million; Operating result €(6,6) million (improved 13 % year-over-year); Net result €(16 078) thousand; Cash and low-risk financial investments €53,5 million (incl. €49,8 million cash and €3,7 million low-risk investments); Net financial debt €17 629 thousand; NDA for Olanzapine LAI submitted to FDA on December 9, 2025; AbbVie partnership advancing with regulatory package expected in 2026.
Risks mentioned
  • Foreign exchange risk: weakness of USD vs EUR impacted revenues and generated ~€1 million FX losses
  • Dependency on partner commercialization (Teva) for UZEDY® royalties and sales forecasts
  • Regulatory risk: approvals (e.g., Olanzapine LAI) and acceptance for review uncertain
  • Financial volatility linked to fair value revaluation of EIB BSA warrants (non-cash €6,8 million impact)
Opportunities identified
  • Olanzapine LAI: NDA submitted and potential launch could be a major growth catalyst
  • UZEDY®: upward revision of 2025 net sales forecast by Teva (from $160 million to $190-200 million)
  • AbbVie partnership: first program advancing toward first-in-human trials (regulatory package expected 2026)
  • Gates Foundation financing: new $3 million envelope to advance mdc-STM malaria program
  • Expanded geographic approvals (Canada, South Korea) supporting broader commercialization

The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.

Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.

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