MERSEN Stock: -17.73% by Midday Friday, 2025 Warning Triggers Collapse

Dramatic Drop

The stock collapsed from €28.20 on Thursday to €23.20 on Friday, creating a significant market crater that contrasts with the trajectory of the year. This debacle marks a massive market rejection of the new guidance from the group specializing in high-performance materials and electrical solutions. The stock is currently testing its support threshold at €23.70, challenging buyers' limits at this price level. The capital turnover is 0.96%, indicating that trading remains concentrated despite the severity of the movement. For comparison, the CAC 40 index modestly fell by 0.52%, highlighting the specific nature of this correction to MERSEN. Over seven days, the decline reaches 11.62%, revealing a chaotic week well before the debacle of October 24. However, over three months, the stock still shows a progression of 5.7%, indicating that the year had not been disappointing until yesterday. The annual decline of 6.07% places the stock in a deficit territory compared to the CAC 40, which has progressed by 9.14% over twelve months. Before this correction, MERSEN's market capitalization stood at 575 million euros, reflecting an increase of 14.5% since January 2025. This tumble has already erased a substantial portion of these gains.

Earnings Warning Crystallizes Sell-Off

The warning issued Thursday evening crystallizes this liquidation. MERSEN revealed a revenue of 895 million euros for the first nine months of 2025, recording an organic decline of 4.1% compared to 2024. The third quarter amounted to 285 million euros, also down by 4.3% on a like-for-like basis. The group also revised its annual forecasts to the lower end of its range. MERSEN now anticipates an organic sales decline between 3% and 5% for 2025, compared to 0% to 5% previously. The current EBITDA margin is reduced to 16% instead of the 16% to 16.5% forecasted. This revision reflects a deteriorated visibility, particularly in the solar market. The core issue lies in the collapse of the advanced materials division, which is down by 11.9% over nine months. This sector suffers from a pronounced weakness in the solar and SiC semiconductor markets. Representing 15% of total activity, the solar segment will show no rebound by the end of 2025 according to management. In contrast, the Electrical Power division records a positive dynamic with an organic growth of 5.8%, supported by power electronics projects and electrical distribution in North America. The market reaction is all the more sharp as analysts had expected more reassuring figures. The consensus placed forecasts at the higher end of the ranges announced by MERSEN, anticipating a limited revenue decline to 2% with an EBITDA margin of 16.3% and an operating margin of 9.5%. This disappointment against expectations catalyzes the debacle.

Technical Perspective

From a technical standpoint, the stock shows an RSI at 71, indicating a pronounced oversold zone following the violent sell-off. The stock is now trading below its moving averages, with the MM50 set at €24.96 and the MM200 at €21.88, creating a gap of €3.05 that preserves a bullish underlying structure. The Stochastic signal displays a buying position, while the MACD remains in a positive configuration with a line at 0.70 and a signal at 0.53. The Bollinger Bands frame the volatility between €24.41 and €27.53. The monthly volatility reaches 7.45%, reflecting recent turbulence.