Nexity's Stock Rebounds Nearly 4% and Approaches its 20-Day Moving Average
This Friday noon, the real estate developer is regaining momentum, benefiting from the significant rebound of the Paris stock market. The stock is recovering from a decline accumulated over the past month, even as short positions in the capital remain at a significant level.
A Technical Rebound Bringing the Stock Closer to its 20-Day Moving Average
Nexity's stock is up 3.58% at €7.96 at midday, within a CAC 40 that is up 1.79% and an SBF 120 that has risen by 1.74%. The stock fully benefits from the general market recovery, after a bearish phase that had led it to test its support at €7.63 at the beginning of the month. This session allows the stock to approach its 20-day moving average, located at €8.02, which it is just 0.69% below. Medium-term benchmarks remain distant, with a 50-day MA at €8.40 (a gap of 5.18%) and a 200-day MA at €8.89 (a gap of 10.40%). The RSI at 40 indicates an exit from a zone close to overselling, consistent with the rebound observed after several sessions of selling pressure. Over a month, the stock is still down by 9.49%, and the performance over a year remains negative by nearly 20%.
High Short Positions That Have Slightly Decreased Over the Past Month
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Four funds cumulatively hold 3.09% of Nexity's capital sold short, according to declarations reviewed on June 8. The level is high in absolute terms, indicating that some institutional investors remain positioned against the stock or seek to cover their exposure to the real estate sector in a tightening interest rate environment. However, the variation over thirty days remains limited, with a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the peak of 3.22%, which does not indicate an acceleration of mistrust in recent weeks. The macro context remains sensitive for the developer: the ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points on June 12, the first increase since September 2023, amid inflation returning above 3% in the eurozone. On the business side, the developer launched a program in May for 400 housing units in Villeneuve-Loubet with the Mousquetaires Group, and deployed its Optimmo offer linked to the Jeanbrun scheme. The €8.02 threshold (the 20-day MA) will be the next technical benchmark to assess the consistency of the rebound.
SectorImmobilier / construction · Promotion immobilière / logement›Construction résidentielle
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Context
Period
Period: 9M2025
Guidance from the release
L’activité commerciale de Nexity continue de s’améliorer au 3ème trimestre ... renouer avec une croissance rentable dès 2025.
Fin du dispositif Pinel entraînant une forte baisse des investisseurs particuliers (-45 %) ; accédants en forte progression (+26 % pour Nexity sur 9M) soutenus par l’extension du PTZ et des taux stabilisés autour de 3,1 % ; marché tertiaire en bas de cycle avec livraisons 2024 impactant le CA tertiaire 2025 ; backlog à 3,9 Md€ (?1,5 année d’activité).
Risks mentioned
Dégradation de l’environnement macro-économique (guidance conditionnelle)
Risque lié aux municipales ralentissant l’instruction des permis de construire
Baisse du marché de détail liée à la fin du Pinel (-45 % investisseurs particuliers)
Segment tertiaire en bas de cycle et absence de rechargement du backlog tertiaire
Opportunities identified
Extension du PTZ favorisant la demande des accédants et des terrains à bâtir (+41 %)
Croissance des activités d’exploitation (résidences étudiantes, coworking) avec taux d’occupation élevés
Partenariat Carrefour avec potentiel CA à terminaison estimé à plus de 2 Md€
Recalibrage de l’offre commerciale et développement sélectif améliorant les délais d’écoulement (5 mois)
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
