Pernod Ricard Shares Rally 3% Midday After a Challenging Start to the Year
On Wednesday, January 21st, Pernod Ricard's stock price rebounded by 3.08%, reaching 76.42 euros at midday. This performance comes after a challenging 2025, with the stock price having fallen nearly 29% over the past twelve months. Recent analyst revisions reflect ongoing caution, while technical indicators suggest a stabilization phase. The French spirits group remains under pressure with a complex operational environment in its key markets.
Analyst Recommendations Reflect Uncertainty
Analyst recommendations reflect the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the spirits manufacturer. BNP Paribas Exane, on January 12, rated the stock as underperform with a target price of 67 euros, indicating a potential downside of 12.3% from the current price. In contrast, MedioBanca on January 13 set a target at 93 euros with a neutral recommendation, suggesting a possible rise of 21.7%. These differences are explained by the challenges the group faces. In the first quarter of fiscal 2025-2026, organic revenue fell by 7.6% year-on-year, notably affected by a 16% drop in sales in the United States due to stock adjustments by distributors. Management expects a gradual recovery in the second fiscal semester, and consensus forecasts anticipate an organic sales decline of about 2.7% for the full year. The next quarterly release, scheduled for February 19, will be a critical test to confirm or refute this scenario of gradual recovery.
Technical Analysis Shows Signs of Stabilization
From a technical standpoint, the stock is now slightly above the lower Bollinger band at 71.68 euros, indicating that the intensity of the decline is diminishing. The RSI at 56 points has moved out of the neutral zone, reflecting a gradual return of buying interest after several weeks of selling pressure. Breaking through the immediate resistance at 76.90 euros, close to the current price, would represent a significant technical milestone towards a more pronounced consolidation. The 50-day moving average, at 76.63 euros, coincides with today's trading level and represents a fragile balance point. However, the 200-day moving average remains significantly higher at 87.94 euros, indicating a still deteriorated long-term trend. Trading volumes remain moderate with only 0.09% of the capital traded, which currently limits the scope of the observed rebound. The financial calendar ahead, with the publication of half-year results in mid-February and third-quarter revenue in mid-April, is expected to influence the stock's trajectory in the coming weeks.
