Safran Shares Drop 2.33% at Opening, Affected by Naval Blockade Against Iran
The share of the aeronautical engine manufacturer drops 2.33% at the start of the session this Monday, to €306.00, in a suddenly deteriorated geopolitical context. The CAC 40, down 0.93% in session, is directly impacted by the announcement of the American naval blockade against Iran and the surge in oil above $100 per barrel.
Safran's share price falls 2.33% from last Friday's close of €313.30, erasing part of the 6.51% rebound recorded over the last seven days. This decline is part of a movement of distrust affecting the entire European aerospace and defense sector: Airbus is down 1.98% in session, while Schneider Electric drops 0.29%.
The announcement on April 13 of an American naval blockade targeting Iranian ports and potentially the Strait of Hormuz caused a nearly 8% jump in Brent crude, now above $101 per barrel. For a company like Safran, which largely relies on propulsion and aircraft engine maintenance services, any sustained increase in crude prices is a factor of vigilance: it increases the energy bill of airlines, which can ultimately weigh on the pace of orders and flights. Operators are therefore incorporating an additional geopolitical risk into the valuation of the stock from the first minutes of trading.
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Technically, Safran's share price at €306.00 is slightly below its 50-day moving average of €311.35, after briefly crossing it upwards last week. This return below this threshold signals a weakening of the recent rebound, although the stock remains solidly above its 200-day moving average of €298.63, reflecting the long-term upward trend which translates to an annual performance of nearly 49.5%. The RSI, at 58, remains in a neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold signals.
The next identified catalyst is the publication of the first quarter 2026 results, scheduled for April 23. This event will allow to assess the dynamics of the order book and the evolution of the group's margins in an environment where rising tensions in the Middle East add a layer of uncertainty over kerosene costs. The nearest technical resistance is at €346.60, while the major support is positioned at €274.40, providing a framework for reading for the upcoming sessions.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
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