Safran Shares Drop, -7.5% in a Week After July Record
The aerospace engine manufacturer significantly declines in early afternoon trading on the Paris Stock Exchange, amidst a nearly stable CAC 40. The stock is experiencing profit-taking after a spectacular rally this spring, and an analyst's note adds to the session's backdrop.
A Decline That Positions Safran at the Bottom of the CAC 40, Below its 20-Day Moving Average
Safran shares lose 1.46% to €331.20, in a flat CAC 40 (+0.04%) where the stock is among the index's largest declines. The session erases part of the monthly gain, still solid at +8.2%, and extends the weekly decline (-7.15%) that began after the historical record set on July 6 at €360.80. The stock has fallen below its 20-day moving average (€338.12, a -2.05% gap), signaling a short-term slowdown, while still maintaining a substantial cushion above its MM50 (€308.92, a +7.21% gap) and MM200 (€305.49, a +8.42% gap).
The RSI at 55 remains neutral, consistent with a digestion phase after the spring surge. The next downside threshold monitored is around the resistance-turned-support of €333.50, broken upwards at the end of June. The sectoral context is not helping: Airbus is also down nearly 1% in a declining defense-aerospace sector, while the surge in Brent (nearly 4% to $79 after US strikes against Iranian targets) increases the fuel bill for air transport, the main client of engine manufacturers.
Citi Raises Target to €315 but Remains Below Current Price
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Citi issued a neutral rating this Monday with a price target increased from €305 to €315. However, the target remains 4.9% below the current price of €331.20, reflecting a valuation deemed already stretched by the American firm after the recent months' rally. This cautious view contrasts with the underlying trend of the stock: the share maintains a performance of +18.5% over one year and +5.71% over three months, and Barclays had, on the contrary, raised its target at the beginning of July in a more aggressive move.
On the industrial front, the agreement signed in mid-June with Greek Theon International, for a joint venture in drone optronics, remains in the background of the file. The next concrete appointment for investors will be the publication of the semi-annual revenue, traditionally expected at the end of July, in an environment where the energy risk premium related to the Strait of Hormuz weighs on all players in the air transport sector.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
