Safran's stock closed the session on Friday, January 9th at 317.30 euros, down 0.72% from the previous day when it was trading at 319.60 euros. This consolidation movement comes after breaking through the major technical resistance at 322.60 euros on Wednesday, marking a logical profit-taking. Trading volumes remained limited with only 0.1% of capital traded, reflecting the absence of an immediate catalyst to animate the session. Over seven days, the stock has shown a performance of 6.69%, and over a year, the increase reached 46.76%, confirming the long-term upward trajectory of the aerospace equipment manufacturer. UBS has raised its price target from 315 to 330 euros, confirming analyst support for the stock despite an RSI in the overbought zone at 73 points. This revision follows that of Bernstein, which had raised its target from 370 to 380 euros on January 6th, maintaining its outperformance advice. The consensus remains favorable, with a potential upside of about 4% from the current closing price for UBS's target.
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An RSI at 73 indicates an overbought zone, with the stock having risen rapidly in recent days without real pause. This level suggests that a technical consolidation might be necessary before a possible resumption of the upward movement. Concurrently, the MACD shows a line at 5.50 above the signal line at 2.96, with a positive histogram at 2.54, confirming that the configuration remains bullish in the medium term. The price is significantly above its 50-day moving average at 300.07 euros, as well as its 200-day moving average at 277.16 euros, reinforcing the underlying trend. The one-month volatility stands at 6.32%, indicating recent progress without erratic movements. The stock is currently facing resistance at 322.60 euros, which was breached on Wednesday but not confirmed at the close this Friday, while support is at 286.10 euros. The upcoming 2025 annual results, expected on February 13, 2026, will be a major catalyst for the stock.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
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