Safran Shares Rally +3.44% in Session After Weeks of Decline
On Wednesday, the aerospace engine manufacturer's stock marked its best session in weeks, driven by a sharp rebound in the CAC 40, which is up 2.08% during the session. Safran is trading at €289.00, up 3.44% from Tuesday's close, amid high volatility in European markets.
Safran's stock has rebounded significantly after losing nearly 2.82% over the last three months. This increase comes as the stock price was recently hovering near its support threshold at €274.40, a level that appears to have acted as a floor. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator measuring the speed and magnitude of price movements, stands at 34, indicating an oversold zone, which signals that the stock was under statistical selling pressure for several sessions. This positioning can facilitate short-term technical rebounds.
However, the stock remains significantly below its 20-day (€299.70) and 50-day (€312.57) moving averages, indicating a still intact downward trend in the medium term. The most significant resistance is at €347.20, a level more than 20% above the current price. Today's rebound is part of a broader movement: the SBF 120 is up 2.10% in the session, while comparable industrial stocks like Airbus (+3.41%) and Schneider Electric (+4.36%) also show noticeable gains.
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The next identified catalyst for Safran is the publication of its first quarter 2026 results, scheduled for April 23. This event will be crucial to assess the group's commercial dynamics, particularly in its propulsion and aeronautical equipment activities, which have been growth drivers in recent years. The general assembly is scheduled for May 21.
Over one year, the stock maintains a positive performance of 19.42%, reflecting the strength of its trajectory despite recent turbulence. However, the geopolitical context remains a major factor of attention. The surge in Brent crude to over $115 following military escalation in the Middle East at the end of March weighs on the prospects for air transport by increasing fuel costs for Safran's client companies. Volatility remains high in the markets, with the VIX reaching 31.05 points at last Friday's close, a level indicating significant stress. The group's ability to maintain its forecasts in this uncertain environment will be closely watched during the next financial communication.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
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