Safran shares closed at 322.60 euros this Wednesday, January 7, marking an increase of 3.17% from the previous day, thus surpassing the resistance threshold of 312.80 euros identified by technical analysts. The stock gained investor interest following the company's announcement of a capital reduction, resulting from the cancellation of 5,287,961 treasury shares in December 2025, representing 1.25% of the capital. This move is part of a broader 5 billion euro share buyback plan unveiled during the Capital Markets Day in December 2024. Trading volumes remained moderate, with 0.1% of the capital traded, but the session confirms the recent bullish momentum of the stock, which now shows an increase of 8.47% over a week and 50.96% over a year. The RSI, a momentum indicator, stands at 73, indicating overbought territory and signaling an acceleration of buying. This level reflects strong investor appetite despite the stock's high price. Additionally, the stock is now significantly above its 50-day (299.39 euros) and 200-day (276.39 euros) moving averages, confirming the strength of the underlying trend. The MACD, with a histogram at 1.86, remains in positive territory, supporting the bullish signal for the medium term.
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The day before, Bernstein raised its price target from 370 to 380 euros, while maintaining its outperformance recommendation on the stock. This adjustment follows weeks after revisions by JPMorgan, which raised its target to 375 euros in December, and Deutsche Bank to 325 euros in November. The three firms now display a potential upside ranging from 0.7% to 17.8% relative to the current price, reflecting high confidence in the company's trajectory. These revisions are based on strong post-sale aerospace performances, the ramp-up of LEAP engines, and recent contracts won, particularly in India and the Middle East. The financial calendar anticipates the publication of the annual 2025 results on February 13. Investors will monitor the company's ability to meet its organic growth and cash flow generation targets, as the aerospace sector continues its post-Covid recovery phase. The one-month volatility remains contained at 5.56%, indicating relative stability of the stock despite its recent surge. In the short term, focus will be on the maintenance of the technical support at 312.80 euros, now a surpassed resistance, and on potential consolidation as the results approach.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
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