Safran's Stock Falls Below its 200-Day Moving Average: The 274€ Threshold in Sight
The aerospace engine manufacturer's stock drops nearly 2% this Thursday, in a Paris market weighed down by escalating tensions in the Middle East. At 285.10 euros, Safran moves further away from its medium-term moving averages as the first quarter results publication looms.
Safran's stock loses 1.89% at 285.10 euros, after closing the previous day at 290.60 euros. The stock is moving in line with the general trend of the CAC 40, which is down 1.28% during the session, and the SBF 120, also down by 1.28%. The day is marked by heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran: after a brief hope for a ceasefire denied by Iran, hostilities have hardened, causing a rebound in Brent crude to about 108 dollars, up more than 6% in twenty-four hours. This renewed nervousness weighs on all European industrial stocks. Airbus, a direct sectoral comparable, is down 2.79%, while Schneider Electric drops 4.33%. Over the past week, the group's stock has lost 1.04%, and its three-month performance is at -4.14%, contrasting with a gain of 16.32% over a year. Investors are now awaiting the publication of the first quarter 2026 results, scheduled for April 23, followed by the general assembly set for May 21.
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Graphically, Safran's stock price is significantly below its 50-day moving average, which stands at 312.06 euros, and has just fallen below its 200-day moving average (297.63 euros). This double downward crossover reflects a deterioration in the medium-term momentum and confirms the technical pressure that has been exerted on the stock for several weeks. The RSI, at 43, is in the lower neutral zone, without an oversold signal, but reflects unfavorably oriented momentum. The most relevant support is at 274.40 euros, a level that also corresponds to the proximity of the lower Bollinger band (266.86 euros). A drop below this threshold would pave the way for a more pronounced bearish acceleration. The negative beta of -0.09 indicates a very low correlation with the benchmark index, making the stock relatively atypical in its response to market movements. The monthly volatility, measured at 7.53, remains contained given the tense geopolitical context.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
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