Shell: Production Declines in Q1, Middle East Conflict Impacts Qatar

Production Forecast for Q1 2026

Shell anticipates an upstream production ranging from 1.760 to 1.860 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter of 2026, down from 1.892 million in the previous quarter. This decline includes reduced production following the integration of the Adura joint venture. In Integrated Gas, expected production is set between 880 and 920 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. LNG liquefaction volumes are projected between 7.6 and 8.0 million tonnes, supported by the ramp-up of LNG Canada, offset by weather constraints in Australia and shutdowns in Qatar.

Refining and Chemical Margins, and Marketing Volumes

The indicative refining margin is expected to rise to 17 dollars per barrel, up from 14 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2025. The chemical margin stands at 139 dollars per ton, compared to 140 dollars previously. In Marketing, sales volumes are expected between 2.550 and 2.650 million barrels per day, down from 2.701 million in the previous quarter. In Chemicals and Products, trading and optimization activities are expected to be significantly higher than in the fourth quarter. At the group level, working capital movements are expected to be between -15 and -10 billion dollars, due to exceptional price volatility of raw materials on inventories and trade receivables.

Uncertainties and Financial Impacts

Shell notes that these outlooks are subject to increased uncertainty due to the situation in the Middle East. In Upstream, the tax burden is expected to be between 1.6 and 2.4 billion dollars, related to portfolio developments in Nigeria and the United Kingdom. The group also anticipates a non-monetary impact of 3 to 4 billion dollars on net debt, linked to the rise in variable components of long-term maritime leasing contracts. The complete results for the first quarter will be published on May 7, 2026.