Societe Generale Shares Hit New Historic High at Midday
On Monday at midday, Societe Generale's stock reached a symbolic milestone by setting a new high since 2008 at 74.38 euros. The bank showed a 0.8% increase in a context of strong upward momentum, driven by a 138% surge over the past year and a 35% rise in the last three months.
Breaking Resistance Levels: A Turning Point for Societe Generale
The sequence of breaking through resistance levels marks a turning point for Societe Generale, paving the way for potential new bullish prospects. The bank now shows a 6.5% increase over seven days, confirming the acceleration of its trend. The stock price is significantly above its moving averages, with a 12% gap from the 20-day average (70.43 euros) and 33% from the 200-day average (55.63 euros). The RSI indicator reaches 68 points, approaching the overbought zone without hitting it, while the MACD displays a positive signal with a main line at 1.33 above the signal line. These technical elements indicate a favorable orientation, supported by a contained monthly volatility of 6.32%. The support identified at 66.90 euros now represents a potential fallback area in case of a correction.
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Analysts have recently adjusted their outlook on the stock, with contrasting positions. Oddo BHF raised its price target from 63 to 78 euros at the end of January, while reiterating its positive 'outperform' rating, implying a limited upside potential of 5.2% from the current level. Conversely, Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgraded its recommendation from 'outperform' to 'market perform', accompanied by a revised target from 68 to 77 euros, 3.9% above today's price. These divergences occur just days before the publication of the annual 2025 results, scheduled for February 6th. This major deadline should provide investors with insights into the bank's ability to maintain its growth trajectory. The current valuation already reflects high expectations after an exceptional stock market performance over the last twelve months.
En 2025, nous avons franchi une étape déterminante dans la transformation de notre Groupe, avec des revenus et un résultat net records et une distribution exceptionnelle d’actions.
Revenus 2025 à 27 254 millions d'euros, résultat net part du Groupe 6 002 millions d'euros; ROTE 10,2%; coefficient d’exploitation 63,6%; coût du risque 26 pb; distribution 4 679 millions d’euros; CET1 13,5%; dividende par action 1,61 EUR; programme de rachats d'actions de 1 462 millions d'euros; objectif 2026: croissance des revenus >2%, coût du risque 25-30 pb, coefficient d’exploitation <60%.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Croissance des revenus attendue en 2026 supérieure à 2% par rapport à 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA attendu en 2026 en progression par rapport à 2025, sans chiffre cible communiqué.
Expected net income: Résultat net attendu en 2026 avec une ROtE supérieure à 10%.
Management commentary: La direction confirme ses objectifs pour 2026 et vise une rentabilité accrue et une meilleure maîtrise des coûts.
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