Thales Shares Fall Again, Lagging Behind in the CAC 40 Below Its Averages
The defense electronics group continues another session in the red in the Paris market, going against a balanced Parisian index. The stock is now at the bottom of the pack, penalized by a lowered target price from a major Swiss firm. The slide intensifies as the stock now trades well below its moving averages.
UBS Lowers Its Price Target from €390 to €330 While Maintaining a Buy Rating
Today's penalty originates from an adjustment in analyst opinions. UBS has revised its price target on Thales from €390 to €330, while reaffirming its buy rating.
Despite this downward revision, the new target still offers a theoretical potential of about 48% above the current price of €222.30. The decline today extends a negative streak, with a drop of 7.53% over a week and nearly 17% over three months. The stock now ranks at the bottom of the CAC 40, while the broader index remains stable during the session.
The Stock Dips Below Its Moving Averages and Re-tests the €219.40 Support Level
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The technical setup has significantly deteriorated since mid-June. The price is now below the MM20 (€231.73) with a gap of 4.07%, and under the MM50 (€234.86) with a deviation of 5.35%. The MM200 at €244.94 is even further away, over 9% above the price. The RSI at 43 remains in the neutral zone, without a clear exhaustion signal from sellers.
The stock is approaching the support at €219.40 again, a threshold previously breached at the end of June and then reclaimed at the beginning of July. The exceptional charge of €450 million related to the cessation of the F126 program, announced on July 3, continues to weigh on sentiment despite revised 2026 targets announced at that time. The next significant event will be the publication of the semi-annual results, a crucial deadline to validate or refute the new trajectory presented in early July.
Net income: 2 005 millions d'euros (Résultat Net Ajusté, part du Groupe)
Free cash flow: 2 577 millions d'euros
-1 618 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,90 €
Payout ratio: 40 %
Guidance from the release
2025 a été une très bonne année avec des commandes records et une croissance du chiffre d’affaires, démontrant l’excellence opérationnelle du Groupe.
Communiqué indiquant des commandes records, un chiffre d’affaires en hausse et une rentabilité améliorée en 2025, avec des perspectives 2026 positives et un dividende soutenu.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d'euros en 2026
Expected EBITDA: Non précisé publiquement
Expected net income: Non précisé publiquement
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Thales vise un book-to-bill supérieur à 1 et une croissance organique du chiffre d’affaires entre 6 % et 7 %, correspondant à un chiffre d’affaires entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d’euros, et une marge d’EBIT Ajusté entre 12,6 % et 12,8 %; le taux de conversion en cash devrait se situer entre 95 % et 100 %.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
