Total Shares Fall 2.74% at Midday Despite Venezuelan Crisis
TotalEnergies' stock has fallen 2.74% at midday this Wednesday, January 7, reaching 53.53 euros from 55.04 euros at the previous day's close. Trading remains moderate with only 0.09% of the capital having changed hands since the opening, reflecting relative caution from investors in an energy market disrupted by the geopolitical situation in Venezuela. This downward movement amplifies the correction that has begun over several sessions, with the stock now showing a weekly decline of 5.09%, erasing some of the gains accumulated over the last quarter. Over a longer period, the performance remains positive with a quarterly increase of 4.33%, while the annual sliding performance is slightly negative at minus 2.16%. The price is now below the technical support threshold identified at 54.50 euros, a breach that could increase selling pressure in the short term. Resistance at 57.18 euros is now nearly 6.8% above current levels. Monthly volatility remains at 3.94%, a moderate level that nevertheless characterizes some nervousness in a sector sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations and crude oil price variations.
Technical analysis reveals a gradual degradation in the stock's configuration. The RSI is at 45, in a slightly bearish zone but without indicating a marked oversell, a sign of weakening momentum without yet tipping into excess. This indicator reflects moderate but persistent selling pressure, with the stock now trading below its key moving averages, a technical signal generally interpreted as a weakening of the medium-term trend. Indeed, the price is below the 50-day moving average, set at 55.43 euros, marking a break from the favorable positioning observed in recent weeks. However, the stock remains slightly above the 200-day moving average fixed at 53.32 euros, thus preserving a structural long-term support located only 0.4% below current levels. The MACD displays a negative histogram at minus 0.02, with a MACD line at minus 0.13 moving below the signal line at minus 0.12, a configuration that confirms the absence of a short-term bullish dynamic and suggests an ongoing bearish consolidation phase.
The decline observed in the stock is part of a context of a disrupted oil market due to the situation in Venezuela. The capture of President Nicolás Maduro by the United States on January 3 paradoxically led to a drop in oil prices, as markets anticipate a possible resumption of Venezuelan production under American control. This bearish dynamic on crude weighs mechanically on the entire European energy sector, with TotalEnergies not escaping this sectorial correction despite the group's lack of significant operational exposure to Venezuela. Investors are now turning to the financial calendar of the group with the publication of the fourth quarter 2025 results scheduled for February 11, which should provide insights into the group's trajectory in an environment of pressured hydrocarbon prices. The next dividend detachment is scheduled for March 31, 2026, with the payment of the third installment of 0.85 euros per share planned for April 2, maintaining an attractive remuneration policy in an uncertain market context. BNP Paribas had raised its price target from 50 to 55 euros on December 8 last year with a neutral recommendation, a level that now coincides with the current trading range and suggests limited rebound potential in the short term according to analysts.
