TotalEnergies Shares Decline Despite 10% Surge in Brent and Two Upgrades
TotalEnergies shares fell by 1.21% this Tuesday midday, priced at 68.52 euros, amid high geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Crude oil prices soared nearly 10% following military operations in Iran, yet the oil major's stock did not benefit from this trend during today's session. However, two target price upgrades by leading banks have fueled the debate on the company's valuation.
Brent and WTI Prices Spike Amid Supply Disruption Fears
Brent reached $80.14 a barrel and WTI hit $73.19 this Tuesday, in direct response to fears of global hydrocarbon supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for oil transit, is now being bypassed by major shipping companies, which extends trade routes and increases transport costs. European natural gas (TTF) prices have surged by nearly 25%. Despite this theoretically favorable context for integrated oil companies, TotalEnergies' stock declined in line with European indices, which fell between 1 and 3% without widespread panic. Market operators are betting on a conflict that is limited in duration, tempering the bullish impact on energy stocks. On longer horizons, however, the stock has shown solid performance: +3.6% over seven days and +21.23% over three months. The RSI, at 84, is in the overbought zone, indicating that the stock has experienced rapid progress in recent weeks and a technical pullback is not unusual in such scenarios.
Two Major Investment Banks Upgrade Their Outlook on the Oil Group
Two major investment banks have raised their outlook on the oil group. JP Morgan upgraded its recommendation from 'neutral' to 'overweight' while raising its price target from 63 to 75 euros, representing an approximate 9.5% upside from the current price. Meanwhile, Citi has maintained its buy rating and increased its target from 71 to 75 euros. These adjustments, published on March 2nd, reflect a reevaluation of the group's prospects in a changing energy price environment. Regarding the financial calendar, the detachment of the third dividend installment is scheduled for March 31st, while the first quarter 2026 results will be published on April 29th. These dates could provide new catalysts for the stock's valuation in the coming weeks. The nearest technical resistance is precisely at the previous day's closing level of 69.36 euros, a threshold the stock failed to surpass this Tuesday.
